Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 14.
16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 15-3, +12.6u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 75-64, +5.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 OAK @  KCThu, Dec 8 20:25 ET | KC +3.5 | 46 | OAK 13 at KC 21KC +3.5 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  MIASun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | MIA -2 | 44 | ARI 23 at MIA 26MIA -2 closed · MIA covered |
 ATL @  LASun, Dec 11 16:25 ET | LA -4.5 | 44 | ATL 42 at LA 14LA -4.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | DET +7.5 | 42 | CHI 17 at DET 20DET +7.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | CLE -4 | 42 | CIN 23 at CLE 10CLE -4 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Dec 11 20:30 ET | NYG -3.5 | 47 | DAL 7 at NYG 10NYG -3.5 closed · NYG covered |
 DEN @  TENSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | TEN +2 | 44 | DEN 10 at TEN 13TEN +2 closed · TEN covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | IND +6.5 | 47.5 | HOU 22 at IND 17IND +6.5 closed · HOU covered |
 MIN @  JAXSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 38 | MIN 25 at JAX 16JAX -3 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 11 16:25 ET | TB +2 | 52 | NO 11 at TB 16TB +2 closed · TB covered |
 NYJ @  SFSun, Dec 11 16:05 ET | SF +3 | 42.5 | NYJ 23 at SF 17SF +3 closed · NYJ covered |
 PIT @  BUFSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | BUF -1 | 45.5 | PIT 27 at BUF 20BUF -1 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  CARSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | CAR +1 | 48.5 | SD 16 at CAR 28CAR +1 closed · CAR covered |
 SEA @  GBSun, Dec 11 16:25 ET | GB -3 | 47 | SEA 10 at GB 38GB -3 closed · GB covered |
 WAS @  PHISun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | PHI -1.5 | 48.5 | WAS 27 at PHI 22PHI -1.5 closed · WAS covered |
 BAL @  NEMon, Dec 12 20:30 ET | NE +6 | 45.5 | BAL 23 at NE 30NE +6 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ MIA WIN ARI -2 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 21-14 (60%)
BAL @ NE WIN BAL +6 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 42-23 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 31-19 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 49-32 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
PIT @ BUF WIN BUF +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, on turf 21-14 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CHI @ DET LOSS CHI +7.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 30-15 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 42-23 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 38-22 (63%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
DAL @ NYG WIN DAL -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 71-44 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 98-65 (60%)
DEN @ TEN WIN DEN +2 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 56-33 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 52-33 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, won last week 23-15 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LAC @ CAR WIN LAC +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, high total (48+) 18-12 (60%)
ATL @ LAR WIN LAR +4.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 32-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, at home, got blown out last week 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 25-14 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ PHI WIN WAS -1.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 105-61 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 60-35 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 41-26 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CIN @ CLE TOTALWIN Under 42.0 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 69-46 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
ARI @ MIA TOTALLOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
- under when windy, line inside 3 59-43 (58%)
SEA @ GB TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-16 (60%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 58-42 (58%)
PIT @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 58-42 (58%)
NO @ TB TOTALWIN Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
DAL @ NYG TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
CHI @ DET TOTALWIN Under 42.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
OAK @ KC TOTALWIN Under 46.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NYJ @ SF TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 33-10 (77%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.