Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 15.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-7, -3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 79-71, +1.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LA @  SEAThu, Dec 15 20:25 ET | SEA +15 | 39.5 | LA 3 at SEA 24SEA +15 closed · SEA covered |
 MIA @  NYJSat, Dec 17 20:25 ET | NYJ -2.5 | 40 | MIA 34 at NYJ 13NYJ -2.5 closed · MIA covered |
 CLE @  BUFSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | BUF +10.5 | 43.5 | CLE 13 at BUF 33BUF +10.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DET @  NYGSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | NYG +4 | 42.5 | DET 6 at NYG 17NYG +4 closed · NYG covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | CHI -4.5 | 40 | GB 30 at CHI 27CHI -4.5 closed · CHI covered |
 IND @  MINSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | MIN +5 | 44.5 | IND 34 at MIN 6MIN +5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | HOU +3.5 | 39.5 | JAX 20 at HOU 21HOU +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  DENSun, Dec 18 16:25 ET | DEN -3 | 43.5 | NE 16 at DEN 3DEN -3 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  ARISun, Dec 18 16:05 ET | ARI +3 | 48.5 | NO 48 at ARI 41ARI +3 closed · NO covered |
 OAK @  SDSun, Dec 18 16:25 ET | SD -2.5 | 49.5 | OAK 19 at SD 16SD -2.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  BALSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | BAL +5 | 41 | PHI 26 at BAL 27BAL +5 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | CIN -3 | 45.5 | PIT 24 at CIN 20CIN -3 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  ATLSun, Dec 18 16:05 ET | ATL +13.5 | 51.5 | SF 13 at ATL 41ATL +13.5 closed · ATL covered |
 TB @  DALSun, Dec 18 20:30 ET | DAL +7 | 47.5 | TB 20 at DAL 26DAL +7 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  KCSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | KC +6 | 43 | TEN 19 at KC 17KC +6 closed · TEN covered |
 CAR @  WASMon, Dec 19 20:30 ET | WAS +7 | 50.5 | CAR 26 at WAS 15WAS +7 closed · CAR covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SF @ ATL - model likes them by 2.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 31-19 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, better QB, high total (48+) 37-23 (62%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
CLE @ BUF - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 50-33 (60%)
CAR @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 31-20 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 34-22 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 34-22 (61%)
NE @ DEN - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 55-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 26-16 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 34-21 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PIT @ CIN - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 98-65 (60%)
PHI @ BAL TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 22-4 (85%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 74-54 (58%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
GB @ CHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
CLE @ BUF TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 36-27 (57%)
NE @ DEN TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-16 (60%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 58-42 (58%)
OAK @ SD TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NO @ ARI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.