Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 8.
13 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -4.9u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 43-36, +4.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 JAX @  TENThu, Oct 27 20:25 ET | TEN +3 | 43.5 | JAX 22 at TEN 36TEN +3 closed · TEN covered |
 ARI @  CARSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 45.5 | ARI 20 at CAR 30CAR +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 DET @  HOUSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | HOU +1 | 46.5 | DET 13 at HOU 20HOU +1 closed · HOU covered |
 GB @  ATLSun, Oct 30 16:25 ET | ATL +3 | 51 | GB 32 at ATL 33ATL +3 closed · GB covered |
 KC @  INDSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 50.5 | KC 30 at IND 14IND -3 closed · KC covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | BUF -5.5 | 48 | NE 41 at BUF 25BUF -5.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  CLESun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | CLE -2.5 | 45.5 | NYJ 31 at CLE 28CLE -2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 OAK @  TBSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | TB +1 | 48 | OAK 30 at TB 24TB +1 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Oct 30 20:30 ET | DAL +5 | 44 | PHI 23 at DAL 29DAL +5 closed · DAL covered |
 SD @  DENSun, Oct 30 16:05 ET | DEN +3.5 | 43 | SD 19 at DEN 27DEN +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 SEA @  NOSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | NO -1 | 50 | SEA 20 at NO 25NO -1 closed · NO covered |
 WAS @  CINSun, Oct 30 09:30 ET | CIN +3 | 49 | WAS 27 at CIN 27CIN +3 closed · WAS covered |
 MIN @  CHIMon, Oct 31 20:30 ET | CHI -5.5 | 39.5 | MIN 10 at CHI 20CHI -5.5 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PHI @ DAL - model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 44-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 50-28 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 16-9 (64%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
DET @ HOU - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 23-9 (72%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 45-27 (62%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
SEA @ NO - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, in a dome, high total (48+) 36-23 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 50-33 (60%)
WAS @ CIN - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, better record, elite QB 33-22 (60%)
SD @ DEN TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 74-54 (58%)
DET @ HOU TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 56-33 (63%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 63-40 (61%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 29-20 (59%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NE @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
OAK @ TB TOTAL- under when windy, line inside 3 59-43 (58%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
GB @ ATL TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
KC @ IND TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
SEA @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
WAS @ CIN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.