Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 1.
15 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 1-5, -4.5u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 1-5, -4.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  NEThu, Sep 7 20:30 ET | NE +8 | 47.5 | KC 42 at NE 27NE +8 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  DETSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | DET -2.5 | 48.5 | ARI 23 at DET 35DET -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 ATL @  CHISun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | CHI -6.5 | 48 | ATL 23 at CHI 17CHI -6.5 closed · CHI covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | CIN +2.5 | 41.5 | BAL 20 at CIN 0CIN +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  SFSun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | SF -4.5 | 45.5 | CAR 23 at SF 3SF -4.5 closed · CAR covered |
 IND @  LASun, Sep 10 16:05 ET | LA +3.5 | 41.5 | IND 9 at LA 46LA +3.5 closed · LA covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | HOU +5.5 | 38 | JAX 29 at HOU 7HOU +5.5 closed · JAX covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 10 20:30 ET | DAL +6 | 46.5 | NYG 3 at DAL 19DAL +6 closed · DAL covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | BUF +7 | 42 | NYJ 12 at BUF 21BUF +7 closed · BUF covered |
 OAK @  TENSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | TEN +2.5 | 49.5 | OAK 26 at TEN 16TEN +2.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | WAS -2 | 49.5 | PHI 30 at WAS 17WAS -2 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | CLE -10 | 47 | PIT 21 at CLE 18CLE -10 closed · CLE covered |
 SEA @  GBSun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | GB +2.5 | 49.5 | SEA 9 at GB 17GB +2.5 closed · GB covered |
 LAC @  DENMon, Sep 11 22:20 ET | DEN +3 | 41.5 | LAC 21 at DEN 24DEN +3 closed · push |
 NO @  MINMon, Sep 11 19:10 ET | MIN +3 | 47.5 | NO 19 at MIN 29MIN +3 closed · MIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CIN - model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, division game 55-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 104-62 (63%)
IND @ LAR - model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, bad QB, better coach 28-17 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, worse QB, better coach 50-33 (60%)
PIT @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 36-23 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, division game 50-32 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 43-28 (61%)
PHI @ WAS - model likes them by 2.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 37-24 (61%)
LAC @ DEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 99-77 (56%)
JAX @ HOU TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.