Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 4.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, -0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 24-17, +2.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CHI @  GBThu, Sep 28 20:25 ET | GB +7.5 | 44 | CHI 14 at GB 35GB +7.5 closed · GB covered |
 BUF @  ATLSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | ATL +8 | 48 | BUF 23 at ATL 17ATL +8 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  NESun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | NE +9 | 48 | CAR 33 at NE 30NE +9 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | CLE -3 | 41.5 | CIN 31 at CLE 7CLE -3 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | MIN +2.5 | 43 | DET 14 at MIN 7MIN +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  SEASun, Oct 1 20:30 ET | SEA +12.5 | 41.5 | IND 18 at SEA 46SEA +12.5 closed · SEA covered |
 JAX @  NYJSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | NYJ -4 | 38.5 | JAX 20 at NYJ 23NYJ -4 closed · NYJ covered |
 LA @  DALSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | DAL +5 | 51 | LA 35 at DAL 30DAL +5 closed · LA covered |
 NO @  MIASun, Oct 1 21:30 ET | MIA -4 | 51.5 | NO 20 at MIA 0MIA -4 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  TBSun, Oct 1 16:05 ET | TB +2.5 | 46 | NYG 23 at TB 25TB +2.5 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  DENSun, Oct 1 16:25 ET | DEN +3.5 | 44 | OAK 10 at DEN 16DEN +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 PHI @  LACSun, Oct 1 16:05 ET | LAC +1.5 | 48 | PHI 26 at LAC 24LAC +1.5 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | BAL -3.5 | 42 | PIT 26 at BAL 9BAL -3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Oct 1 16:05 ET | ARI +6.5 | 43 | SF 15 at ARI 18ARI +6.5 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | HOU -2.5 | 43 | TEN 14 at HOU 57HOU -2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 WAS @  KCMon, Oct 2 20:30 ET | KC +6.5 | 48 | WAS 20 at KC 29KC +6.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ ATL - model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, in a dome 65-42 (61%)
LAR @ DAL - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 46-22 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 41-20 (67%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 18-9 (67%)
- and 20 more angles on this side
DET @ MIN - model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, on turf 13-7 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, bad QB 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB 25-16 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ NE - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 41-23 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 71-44 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ SEA - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 75-46 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 71-44 (62%)
TEN @ HOU - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 104-62 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 109-72 (60%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 69-46 (60%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
LA @ DAL TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 34-16 (68%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
JAX @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.