Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 15.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -5.8u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 74-66, +2.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  INDThu, Dec 14 20:25 ET | IND -3 | 40.5 | DEN 25 at IND 13IND -3 closed · DEN covered |
 CHI @  DETSat, Dec 16 16:30 ET | DET +5 | 43.5 | CHI 10 at DET 20DET +5 closed · DET covered |
 LAC @  KCSat, Dec 16 20:25 ET | KC +1 | 47 | LAC 13 at KC 30KC +1 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  WASSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | WAS +4 | 40 | ARI 15 at WAS 20WAS +4 closed · WAS covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | CLE -6.5 | 42 | BAL 27 at CLE 10CLE -6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CIN @  MINSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | MIN +12.5 | 42.5 | CIN 7 at MIN 34MIN +12.5 closed · MIN covered |
 DAL @  OAKSun, Dec 17 20:30 ET | OAK -3 | 46 | DAL 20 at OAK 17OAK -3 closed · push |
 GB @  CARSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | CAR +3 | 46.5 | GB 24 at CAR 31CAR +3 closed · CAR covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | JAX +10.5 | 39 | HOU 7 at JAX 45JAX +10.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  SEASun, Dec 17 16:05 ET | SEA -1 | 47.5 | LA 42 at SEA 7SEA -1 closed · LA covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | BUF +3.5 | 39.5 | MIA 16 at BUF 24BUF +3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 NE @  PITSun, Dec 17 16:25 ET | PIT -2.5 | 53 | NE 27 at PIT 24PIT -2.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  NOSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | NO +16.5 | 47 | NYJ 19 at NO 31NO +16.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | NYG -7.5 | 40.5 | PHI 34 at NYG 29NYG -7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 TEN @  SFSun, Dec 17 16:25 ET | SF +2.5 | 44.5 | TEN 23 at SF 25SF +2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 ATL @  TBMon, Dec 18 20:30 ET | TB -7 | 49.5 | ATL 24 at TB 21TB -7 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ TB - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 43-28 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, division game 18-12 (60%)
BAL @ CLE - model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, division game 55-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 52-34 (60%)
DEN @ IND - model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 30-12 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 41-17 (71%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 26-11 (70%)
- and 57 more angles on this side
HOU @ JAC - model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), better QB, division game 34-19 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 114-68 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), better QB, division game 34-22 (61%)
CIN @ MIN - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, in a dome 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, in a dome 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, better coach 47-29 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LA @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 99-77 (56%)
DEN @ IND TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
MIA @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
ATL @ TB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 24-13 (65%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.