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Weekly Lines · 2017

Week 2.

16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 5-7, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 6-12, -7.2u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
HOU @ CINThu, Sep 14 20:25 ETCIN +5.538HOU 13 at CIN 9CIN +5.5 closed · HOU covered
ARI @ INDSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETIND -744ARI 16 at IND 13IND -7 closed · IND covered
BUF @ CARSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETCAR +6.543BUF 3 at CAR 9CAR +6.5 closed · BUF covered
CHI @ TBSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETTB +744CHI 7 at TB 29TB +7 closed · TB covered
CLE @ BALSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETBAL +7.539.5CLE 10 at BAL 24BAL +7.5 closed · BAL covered
DAL @ DENSun, Sep 17 16:25 ETDEN -2.544DAL 17 at DEN 42DEN -2.5 closed · DEN covered
GB @ ATLSun, Sep 17 20:30 ETATL +3.555GB 23 at ATL 34ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered
MIA @ LACSun, Sep 17 16:05 ETLAC +3.546.5MIA 19 at LAC 17LAC +3.5 closed · MIA covered
MIN @ PITSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETPIT +8.543MIN 9 at PIT 26PIT +8.5 closed · PIT covered
NE @ NOSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETNO -5.555NE 36 at NO 20NO -5.5 closed · NE covered
NYJ @ OAKSun, Sep 17 16:05 ETOAK +1444NYJ 20 at OAK 45OAK +14 closed · OAK covered
PHI @ KCSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETKC +446.5PHI 20 at KC 27KC +4 closed · KC covered
SF @ SEASun, Sep 17 16:25 ETSEA +13.542SF 9 at SEA 12SEA +13.5 closed · SF covered
TEN @ JAXSun, Sep 17 13:00 ETJAX -142TEN 37 at JAX 16JAX -1 closed · TEN covered
WAS @ LASun, Sep 17 16:25 ETLA +345.5WAS 27 at LA 20LA +3 closed · WAS covered
DET @ NYGMon, Sep 18 20:30 ETNYG +342DET 24 at NYG 10NYG +3 closed · DET covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

GB @ ATL
WIN ATL -3.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 33-21 (61%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, better QB, high total (48+) 44-28 (61%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 37-24 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
BUF @ CAR
WIN CAR -6.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 18-11 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB 21-14 (60%)
  • and 4 more angles on this side
DAL @ DEN
LOSS DEN +2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, won last week 25-15 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, less rest than the opponent 23-15 (60%)
TEN @ JAC
LOSS JAC +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, bad QB 24-15 (62%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB 25-16 (61%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, bad QB 25-16 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ PIT
LOSS PIT -8.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 42-28 (60%)
CHI @ TB
LOSS TB -7 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 18-11 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 42-28 (60%)
DAL @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
MIA @ LAC TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
  • over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 34-14 (71%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ NO TOTAL
WIN Over 55.0 1.0u
  • over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 34-16 (68%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
SF @ SEA TOTAL
WIN Under 42.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 99-77 (56%)
HOU @ CIN TOTAL
LOSS Over 38.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
CLE @ BAL TOTAL
LOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 1 The 2017 record Week 3 →

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