Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 17.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-7, -2.0u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 90-79, +5.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SEASun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | SEA +8 | 38 | ARI 26 at SEA 24SEA +8 closed · ARI covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | MIA -2.5 | 41.5 | BUF 22 at MIA 16MIA -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | ATL +5 | 44.5 | CAR 10 at ATL 22ATL +5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | MIN +13.5 | 38 | CHI 10 at MIN 23MIN +13.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | BAL +8 | 40 | CIN 31 at BAL 27BAL +8 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | PIT +5 | 38.5 | CLE 24 at PIT 28PIT +5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | PHI -3.5 | 41 | DAL 6 at PHI 0PHI -3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | DET +7.5 | 45 | GB 11 at DET 35DET +7.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | IND +5.5 | 42 | HOU 13 at IND 22IND +5.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | TEN +2.5 | 40 | JAX 10 at TEN 15TEN +2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | DEN +3 | 37.5 | KC 27 at DEN 24DEN +3 closed · KC covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | TB -6 | 49 | NO 24 at TB 31TB -6 closed · TB covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | NE +17 | 43.5 | NYJ 6 at NE 26NE +17 closed · NE covered |
 OAK @  LACSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | LAC +7 | 43 | OAK 10 at LAC 30LAC +7 closed · LAC covered |
 SF @  LASun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | LA -6.5 | 44.5 | SF 34 at LA 13LA -6.5 closed · SF covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | NYG -5 | 41 | WAS 10 at NYG 18NYG -5 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ SEA WIN ARI +8 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 16-9 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 17-11 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), blew someone out last week, on turf 12-8 (60%)
CHI @ MIN WIN CHI +13.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 21-9 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 43-21 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 18-9 (67%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
DAL @ PHI LOSS DAL -3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 20-10 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, division game 15-8 (65%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
KC @ DEN WIN DEN -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 79-48 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 118-77 (60%)
CLE @ PIT LOSS PIT -5 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 21-9 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 18-9 (67%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 15-8 (65%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ NYG WIN WAS -5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 26-17 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 53-35 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 51-34 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ PHI TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 44-33 (57%)
CLE @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 44-33 (57%)
CHI @ MIN TOTALLOSS Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
HOU @ IND TOTALLOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 36-12 (75%)
- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 19-8 (70%)
ARI @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
WAS @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
KC @ DEN TOTALWIN Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 64-47 (58%)
JAX @ TEN TOTALLOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 64-47 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.