Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 8.
13 games and 5 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-3, -0.3u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 38-35, -4.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA @  BALThu, Oct 26 20:25 ET | BAL +3 | 38 | MIA 0 at BAL 40BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 ATL @  NYJSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 43.5 | ATL 25 at NYJ 20NYJ -6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | TB +1.5 | 46 | CAR 17 at TB 3TB +1.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  NOSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | NO +7.5 | 46 | CHI 12 at NO 20NO +7.5 closed · NO covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Oct 29 16:25 ET | WAS -3 | 46.5 | DAL 33 at WAS 19WAS -3 closed · DAL covered |
 HOU @  SEASun, Oct 29 16:05 ET | SEA +6 | 45 | HOU 38 at SEA 41SEA +6 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  CINSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | CIN +11 | 44 | IND 23 at CIN 24CIN +11 closed · IND covered |
 LAC @  NESun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | NE +6.5 | 49.5 | LAC 13 at NE 21NE +6.5 closed · NE covered |
 MIN @  CLESun, Oct 29 21:30 ET | CLE -11 | 38.5 | MIN 33 at CLE 16CLE -11 closed · MIN covered |
 OAK @  BUFSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | BUF +2.5 | 47 | OAK 14 at BUF 34BUF +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 PIT @  DETSun, Oct 29 20:30 ET | DET -3 | 44.5 | PIT 20 at DET 15DET -3 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  PHISun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | PHI +13 | 45 | SF 10 at PHI 33PHI +13 closed · PHI covered |
 DEN @  KCMon, Oct 30 20:30 ET | KC +7 | 42 | DEN 19 at KC 29KC +7 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ NYJ - model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 18-9 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 18-9 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 104-62 (63%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
CHI @ NO - model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, in a dome 23-15 (60%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), blew someone out last week, on turf 12-8 (60%)
MIN @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 31-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 108-65 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, bad QB, better coach 28-17 (62%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
HOU @ SEA - model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 61-36 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, on turf 23-14 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 49-30 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SF @ PHI TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 24-7 (77%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 34-14 (71%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.