Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 5.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 27-23, -0.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NE @  TBThu, Oct 5 20:25 ET | TB -3.5 | 54.5 | NE 19 at TB 14TB -3.5 closed · NE covered |
 ARI @  PHISun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | PHI +6 | 45 | ARI 7 at PHI 34PHI +6 closed · PHI covered |
 BAL @  OAKSun, Oct 8 16:05 ET | OAK +3 | 40.5 | BAL 30 at OAK 17OAK +3 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  CINSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 39 | BUF 16 at CIN 20CIN +3 closed · CIN covered |
 CAR @  DETSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | DET +2 | 42 | CAR 27 at DET 24DET +2 closed · CAR covered |
 GB @  DALSun, Oct 8 16:25 ET | DAL +2.5 | 52 | GB 35 at DAL 31DAL +2.5 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  PITSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | PIT +7.5 | 41 | JAX 30 at PIT 9PIT +7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  HOUSun, Oct 8 20:30 ET | HOU -2 | 45 | KC 42 at HOU 34HOU -2 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  NYGSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 45.5 | LAC 27 at NYG 22NYG +3 closed · LAC covered |
 NYJ @  CLESun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | CLE -1.5 | 41.5 | NYJ 17 at CLE 14CLE -1.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Oct 8 16:05 ET | LA +2 | 46.5 | SEA 16 at LA 10LA +2 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  INDSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | IND -1 | 43.5 | SF 23 at IND 26IND -1 closed · IND covered |
 TEN @  MIASun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | MIA PK | 41.5 | TEN 10 at MIA 16MIA PK closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  CHIMon, Oct 9 20:30 ET | CHI -3.5 | 41 | MIN 20 at CHI 17CHI -3.5 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ CHI - model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, division game 45-28 (62%)
BUF @ CIN - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 18-10 (64%)
SF @ IND - model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 56-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 50-29 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 58-34 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
KC @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 19-8 (70%)
BUF @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
MIN @ CHI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 74-49 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
BAL @ OAK TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 74-49 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
JAX @ PIT TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
TEN @ MIA TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 74-49 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.