Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 12.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-2, +5.8u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 62-52, +7.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LAC @  DALThu, Nov 23 16:30 ET | DAL -1 | 46.5 | LAC 28 at DAL 6DAL -1 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  DETThu, Nov 23 12:30 ET | DET -2.5 | 46 | MIN 30 at DET 23DET -2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  WASThu, Nov 23 20:30 ET | WAS +7 | 44 | NYG 10 at WAS 20WAS +7 closed · WAS covered |
 BUF @  KCSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | KC +8.5 | 47.5 | BUF 16 at KC 10KC +8.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  NYJSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | NYJ -5.5 | 39.5 | CAR 35 at NYJ 27NYJ -5.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  PHISun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | PHI +14 | 43.5 | CHI 3 at PHI 31PHI +14 closed · PHI covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | CIN +7.5 | 39 | CLE 16 at CIN 30CIN +7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  OAKSun, Nov 26 16:25 ET | OAK +3.5 | 41 | DEN 14 at OAK 21OAK +3.5 closed · OAK covered |
 GB @  PITSun, Nov 26 20:30 ET | PIT +14 | 43 | GB 28 at PIT 31PIT +14 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  ARISun, Nov 26 16:25 ET | ARI -6.5 | 37.5 | JAX 24 at ARI 27ARI -6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | NE +17 | 49 | MIA 17 at NE 35NE +17 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  LASun, Nov 26 16:25 ET | LA +2.5 | 54 | NO 20 at LA 26LA +2.5 closed · LA covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Nov 26 16:05 ET | SF -7 | 45 | SEA 24 at SF 13SF -7 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | ATL +10.5 | 47 | TB 20 at ATL 34ATL +10.5 closed · ATL covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 46.5 | TEN 20 at IND 16IND -3 closed · TEN covered |
 HOU @  BALMon, Nov 27 20:30 ET | BAL +7.5 | 39.5 | HOU 16 at BAL 23BAL +7.5 closed · HOU covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ CIN - model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), division game, on turf 43-28 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), division game, on turf 35-23 (60%)
GB @ PIT - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 20-10 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 20-10 (67%)
JAC @ ARI - model fades them by 2.0+, bad QB, better coach, in a dome 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 33-21 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, bad QB, better coach, in a dome 14-9 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
SEA @ SF - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, less rest than the opponent 14-8 (64%)
TB @ ATL TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
DEN @ OAK TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 99-77 (56%)
JAX @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
CLE @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
CAR @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.