Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 9.
13 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +4.6u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 44-39, +0.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  NYJThu, Nov 2 20:25 ET | NYJ -3 | 42 | BUF 21 at NYJ 34NYJ -3 closed · NYJ covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Nov 5 16:05 ET | SF -2.5 | 39 | ARI 20 at SF 10SF -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 42 | ATL 17 at CAR 20CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 BAL @  TENSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 41 | BAL 20 at TEN 23TEN +3 closed · push |
 CIN @  JAXSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | JAX +6 | 38 | CIN 7 at JAX 23JAX +6 closed · JAX covered |
 DEN @  PHISun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | PHI +7 | 41 | DEN 23 at PHI 51PHI +7 closed · PHI covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | HOU +6 | 45 | IND 20 at HOU 14HOU +6 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  DALSun, Nov 5 16:25 ET | DAL +2 | 53 | KC 17 at DAL 28DAL +2 closed · DAL covered |
 LA @  NYGSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | NYG -5.5 | 42.5 | LA 51 at NYG 17NYG -5.5 closed · LA covered |
 OAK @  MIASun, Nov 5 20:30 ET | MIA -3 | 44.5 | OAK 27 at MIA 24MIA -3 closed · push |
 TB @  NOSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | NO +7 | 54 | TB 10 at NO 30NO +7 closed · NO covered |
 WAS @  SEASun, Nov 5 16:05 ET | SEA +8 | 44.5 | WAS 17 at SEA 14SEA +8 closed · WAS covered |
 DET @  GBMon, Nov 6 20:30 ET | GB -2.5 | 42.5 | DET 30 at GB 17GB -2.5 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NYJ - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 53-35 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 51-34 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 48-32 (60%)
KC @ DAL - model likes them by 1.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 28-16 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better QB, high total (48+) 18-11 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, on turf 32-20 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
DEN @ PHI - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, worse record 18-9 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 30-17 (64%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
CIN @ JAC - model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 48-28 (63%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
LAR @ NYG - model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
TB @ NO - model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 18-6 (75%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 29-11 (72%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 27-12 (69%)
- and 21 more angles on this side
KC @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 19-8 (70%)
DET @ GB TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 64-47 (58%)
WAS @ SEA TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 26-21 (55%)
DEN @ PHI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 36-12 (75%)
- over when road team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-18 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.