Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 6.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-3, +2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 33-26, +2.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PHI @  CARThu, Oct 12 20:25 ET | CAR +3 | 44 | PHI 28 at CAR 23CAR +3 closed · PHI covered |
 CHI @  BALSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | BAL +5.5 | 39.5 | CHI 27 at BAL 24BAL +5.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  HOUSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | HOU +7.5 | 46 | CLE 17 at HOU 33HOU +7.5 closed · HOU covered |
 DET @  NOSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | NO +6 | 50.5 | DET 38 at NO 52NO +6 closed · NO covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | MIN -3 | 46 | GB 10 at MIN 23MIN -3 closed · MIN covered |
 LAC @  OAKSun, Oct 15 16:25 ET | OAK +3 | 48.5 | LAC 17 at OAK 16OAK +3 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  JAXSun, Oct 15 16:05 ET | JAX +1 | 42 | LA 27 at JAX 17JAX +1 closed · LA covered |
 MIA @  ATLSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | ATL +14 | 46 | MIA 20 at ATL 17ATL +14 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | NYJ -9 | 48.5 | NE 24 at NYJ 17NYJ -9 closed · NYJ covered |
 NYG @  DENSun, Oct 15 20:30 ET | DEN +14 | 37.5 | NYG 23 at DEN 10DEN +14 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  KCSun, Oct 15 16:25 ET | KC +3.5 | 46.5 | PIT 19 at KC 13KC +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  WASSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | WAS +12 | 46 | SF 24 at WAS 26WAS +12 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  ARISun, Oct 15 16:05 ET | ARI -2.5 | 46.5 | TB 33 at ARI 38ARI -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 IND @  TENMon, Oct 16 20:30 ET | TEN +7 | 46 | IND 22 at TEN 36TEN +7 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ NO - model likes them by 1.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 28-16 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better QB, high total (48+) 18-11 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, on turf 32-20 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
PIT @ KC - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 41-24 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 34-20 (63%)
TB @ ARI - model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 20-13 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, better coach, in a dome 116-77 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 18-12 (60%)
GB @ MIN TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
SF @ WAS TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 34-14 (71%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 24-13 (65%)
NYG @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
CHI @ BAL TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 36-12 (75%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 74-49 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
CLE @ HOU TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 74-49 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.