Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 3.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 13-1, +10.7u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 19-13, +3.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LA @  SFThu, Sep 21 20:25 ET | SF -3 | 40.5 | LA 41 at SF 39SF -3 closed · SF covered |
 ATL @  DETSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | DET -3 | 51 | ATL 30 at DET 26DET -3 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  JAXSun, Sep 24 21:30 ET | JAX -3 | 38 | BAL 7 at JAX 44JAX -3 closed · JAX covered |
 CIN @  GBSun, Sep 24 16:25 ET | GB +7 | 47.5 | CIN 24 at GB 27GB +7 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  INDSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | IND +1 | 42 | CLE 28 at IND 31IND +1 closed · IND covered |
 DEN @  BUFSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | BUF -3.5 | 40 | DEN 16 at BUF 26BUF -3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 HOU @  NESun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | NE +13.5 | 44.5 | HOU 33 at NE 36NE +13.5 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  LACSun, Sep 24 16:25 ET | LAC -3 | 47.5 | KC 24 at LAC 10LAC -3 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | NYJ -5.5 | 43 | MIA 6 at NYJ 20NYJ -5.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 NO @  CARSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | CAR +5.5 | 46.5 | NO 34 at CAR 13CAR +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | PHI +5 | 42 | NYG 24 at PHI 27PHI +5 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  WASSun, Sep 24 20:30 ET | WAS -3.5 | 53 | OAK 10 at WAS 27WAS -3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 PIT @  CHISun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | CHI -7 | 43.5 | PIT 17 at CHI 23CHI -7 closed · CHI covered |
 SEA @  TENSun, Sep 24 16:05 ET | TEN +2 | 42 | SEA 27 at TEN 33TEN +2 closed · TEN covered |
 TB @  MINSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | MIN PK | 41 | TB 17 at MIN 34MIN PK closed · MIN covered |
 DAL @  ARIMon, Sep 25 20:30 ET | ARI -3 | 46.5 | DAL 28 at ARI 17ARI -3 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ JAC WIN BAL -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 59-38 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ ARI LOSS DAL -3 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 18-6 (75%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 37-19 (66%)
- and 20 more angles on this side
DEN @ BUF WIN DEN -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 14-8 (64%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
KC @ LAC WIN KC -3 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 114-68 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, won last week 81-54 (60%)
MIA @ NYJ WIN MIA -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 17-11 (61%)
HOU @ NE WIN NE -13.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 27-12 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 51-23 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 43-20 (68%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
PIT @ CHI WIN PIT -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 56-33 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 36-23 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
SEA @ TEN WIN SEA +2 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 41-24 (63%)
TB @ MIN WIN TB PK 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 40-25 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 33-21 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
ATL @ DET TOTALWIN Over 51.0 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 34-16 (68%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 49-28 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TB @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
DEN @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
BAL @ JAX TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
LA @ SF TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 191-148 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.