Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 13.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-5, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 67-57, +7.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS @  DALThu, Nov 30 20:25 ET | DAL -1.5 | 47 | WAS 14 at DAL 38DAL -1.5 closed · DAL covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 3 16:25 ET | NO +5.5 | 48 | CAR 21 at NO 31NO +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 CLE @  LACSun, Dec 3 16:05 ET | LAC +13.5 | 45 | CLE 10 at LAC 19LAC +13.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  MIASun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | MIA -1 | 41 | DEN 9 at MIA 35MIA -1 closed · MIA covered |
 DET @  BALSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | BAL +2.5 | 43 | DET 20 at BAL 44BAL +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | TEN +7 | 42.5 | HOU 13 at TEN 24TEN +7 closed · TEN covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | JAX +10 | 41 | IND 10 at JAX 30JAX +10 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  NYJSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | NYJ -3.5 | 44 | KC 31 at NYJ 38NYJ -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Dec 3 16:25 ET | ARI -7.5 | 43 | LA 32 at ARI 16ARI -7.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  ATLSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | ATL +2 | 48.5 | MIN 14 at ATL 9ATL +2 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | NE 23 at BUF 3BUF -7.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  OAKSun, Dec 3 16:25 ET | OAK +10 | 43 | NYG 17 at OAK 24OAK +10 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  SEASun, Dec 3 20:30 ET | SEA -3.5 | 46.5 | PHI 10 at SEA 24SEA -3.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  CHISun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | CHI +2.5 | 42 | SF 15 at CHI 14CHI +2.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  GBSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | GB +3 | 45 | TB 20 at GB 26GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 PIT @  CINMon, Dec 4 20:30 ET | CIN -4.5 | 42.5 | PIT 23 at CIN 20CIN -4.5 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
KC @ NYJ WIN KC -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 104-62 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 81-50 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 109-72 (60%)
NYG @ 
LV WIN LV -10 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 51-23 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 58-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 61-36 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
DEN @ MIA LOSS MIA +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better record, worse QB 33-21 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 94-62 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better record, better coach 15-10 (60%)
NE @ BUF LOSS NE -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, on turf 31-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 41-23 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
CAR @ NO WIN NO -5.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 61-37 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 42-26 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 60-38 (61%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
HOU @ TEN LOSS TEN -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, division game 45-28 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 42-28 (60%)
DET @ BAL TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 80-60 (57%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 44-33 (57%)
NE @ BUF TOTALWIN Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 24-13 (65%)
LA @ ARI TOTALLOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 56-42 (57%)
HOU @ TEN TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 36-12 (75%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.