Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 10.
14 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-3, +1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 49-42, +2.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEA @  ARIThu, Nov 9 20:25 ET | ARI -6 | 40 | SEA 22 at ARI 16ARI -6 closed · push |
 CIN @  TENSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | TEN +4.5 | 40.5 | CIN 20 at TEN 24TEN +4.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  DETSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | DET +10.5 | 42.5 | CLE 24 at DET 38DET +10.5 closed · DET covered |
 DAL @  ATLSun, Nov 12 16:25 ET | ATL +3.5 | 49 | DAL 7 at ATL 27ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | CHI +4.5 | 37.5 | GB 23 at CHI 16CHI +4.5 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  LASun, Nov 12 16:05 ET | LA +12 | 45 | HOU 7 at LA 33LA +12 closed · LA covered |
 LAC @  JAXSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | JAX +5 | 40.5 | LAC 17 at JAX 20JAX +5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  WASSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 43 | MIN 38 at WAS 30WAS -1 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  DENSun, Nov 12 20:30 ET | DEN -7 | 45 | NE 41 at DEN 16DEN -7 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  BUFSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | BUF -2 | 48.5 | NO 47 at BUF 10BUF -2 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  SFSun, Nov 12 16:25 ET | SF -3 | 41.5 | NYG 21 at SF 31SF -3 closed · SF covered |
 NYJ @  TBSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | TB +1 | 44.5 | NYJ 10 at TB 15TB +1 closed · TB covered |
 PIT @  INDSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | IND -10.5 | 47 | PIT 20 at IND 17IND -10.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIA @  CARMon, Nov 13 20:30 ET | CAR +8 | 38.5 | MIA 21 at CAR 45CAR +8 closed · CAR covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAC @ JAC - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 58-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
HOU @ LAR - model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 48-28 (63%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
MIN @ WAS - model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 48-28 (63%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
NYG @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse QB, better coach 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 46-29 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 46-29 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ TB - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better record, worse QB 33-21 (61%)
CLE @ DET TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 80-60 (57%)
NE @ DEN TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 56-42 (57%)
GB @ CHI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 36-12 (75%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.