Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 11.
14 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-8, -0.8u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 55-50, +1.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN @  PITThu, Nov 16 20:25 ET | PIT +7 | 44.5 | TEN 17 at PIT 40PIT +7 closed · PIT covered |
 ARI @  HOUSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | HOU +2.5 | 38 | ARI 21 at HOU 31HOU +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 BAL @  GBSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | GB -2.5 | 38.5 | BAL 23 at GB 0GB -2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  LACSun, Nov 19 16:05 ET | LAC +7 | 41.5 | BUF 24 at LAC 54LAC +7 closed · LAC covered |
 CIN @  DENSun, Nov 19 16:25 ET | DEN +2.5 | 37.5 | CIN 20 at DEN 17DEN +2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 41 | DET 27 at CHI 24CHI -3 closed · push |
 JAX @  CLESun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | CLE -7.5 | 37 | JAX 19 at CLE 7CLE -7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  NYGSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | NYG -10 | 44.5 | KC 9 at NYG 12NYG -10 closed · NYG covered |
 LA @  MINSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 46 | LA 7 at MIN 24MIN +1 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  OAKSun, Nov 19 16:25 ET | OAK -7 | 55 | NE 33 at OAK 8OAK -7 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Nov 19 20:30 ET | DAL -6 | 48 | PHI 37 at DAL 9DAL -6 closed · PHI covered |
 TB @  MIASun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | MIA -1 | 44 | TB 30 at MIA 20MIA -1 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  NOSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | NO +9.5 | 52.5 | WAS 31 at NO 34NO +9.5 closed · WAS covered |
 ATL @  SEAMon, Nov 20 20:30 ET | SEA +1 | 46 | ATL 34 at SEA 31SEA +1 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ DEN WIN DEN -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 84-54 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 73-47 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 121-79 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
ARI @ HOU LOSS HOU -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 56-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 58-34 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 35-22 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
JAC @ CLE LOSS JAC -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, better coach 47-29 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, better coach 45-29 (61%)
BUF @ LAC LOSS LAC -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 79-50 (61%)
NE @ 
LV LOSS NE -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 58-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 29-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
WAS @ NO WIN NO -9.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 30-12 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 41-17 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 16-7 (70%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
ATL @ SEA LOSS SEA -1 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 28-16 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, on turf 32-20 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 35-22 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ MIA TOTALWIN Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 80-60 (57%)
JAX @ CLE TOTALLOSS Over 37.0 1.0u
- over when rain in the forecast, home team a big underdog 19-11 (63%)
KC @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when rain in the forecast, home team a big underdog 19-11 (63%)
ARI @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
DET @ CHI TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 64-47 (58%)
BAL @ GB TOTALLOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 64-47 (58%)
NE @ OAK TOTALWIN Under 55.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 24-13 (65%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.