Weekly Lines · 2017
Week 7.
15 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -5.9u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 36-32, -3.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  OAKThu, Oct 19 20:25 ET | OAK -3 | 46.5 | KC 30 at OAK 31OAK -3 closed · OAK covered |
 ARI @  LASun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | LA +3 | 45.5 | ARI 0 at LA 33LA +3 closed · LA covered |
 ATL @  NESun, Oct 22 20:30 ET | NE +3 | 56.5 | ATL 7 at NE 23NE +3 closed · NE covered |
 BAL @  MINSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | MIN +5 | 37.5 | BAL 16 at MIN 24MIN +5 closed · MIN covered |
 CAR @  CHISun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | CHI -2.5 | 39.5 | CAR 3 at CHI 17CHI -2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Oct 22 16:25 ET | PIT +4 | 40 | CIN 14 at PIT 29PIT +4 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  SFSun, Oct 22 16:05 ET | SF -6.5 | 48 | DAL 40 at SF 10SF -6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  LACSun, Oct 22 16:25 ET | LAC -1 | 41 | DEN 0 at LAC 21LAC -1 closed · LAC covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 41 | JAX 27 at IND 0IND -3 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  GBSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | GB -3.5 | 45.5 | NO 26 at GB 17GB -3.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 40 | NYJ 28 at MIA 31MIA +3 closed · push |
 SEA @  NYGSun, Oct 22 16:25 ET | NYG -4 | 39 | SEA 24 at NYG 7NYG -4 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  BUFSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | BUF +3 | 46.5 | TB 27 at BUF 30BUF +3 closed · push |
 TEN @  CLESun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | CLE -5.5 | 42.5 | TEN 12 at CLE 9CLE -5.5 closed · CLE covered |
 WAS @  PHIMon, Oct 23 20:30 ET | PHI +5 | 48.5 | WAS 24 at PHI 34PHI +5 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ CHI - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 19-10 (66%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, won last week 25-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 22-14 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ LAC - model fades them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 52-34 (60%)
BAL @ MIN - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 33-21 (61%)
NO @ GB - model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 23-11 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 28-15 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CIN @ PIT - model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 32-15 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 46-22 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 41-20 (67%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
SEA @ NYG - model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 81-50 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 109-72 (60%)
JAX @ IND TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 66-47 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 140-104 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BAL @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
SEA @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 169-130 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.