New: Be A GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →

Weekly Lines · 2017

Week 16.

16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2017. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 9-6, +5.4u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 83-72, +7.9u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
IND @ BALSat, Dec 23 16:30 ETBAL +13.541IND 16 at BAL 23BAL +13.5 closed · IND covered
MIN @ GBSat, Dec 23 20:30 ETGB -8.541MIN 16 at GB 0GB -8.5 closed · MIN covered
ATL @ NOSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETNO +5.552ATL 13 at NO 23NO +5.5 closed · NO covered
BUF @ NESun, Dec 24 13:00 ETNE +1147.5BUF 16 at NE 37NE +11 closed · NE covered
CLE @ CHISun, Dec 24 13:00 ETCHI +5.537CLE 3 at CHI 20CHI +5.5 closed · CHI covered
DEN @ WASSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETWAS +339.5DEN 11 at WAS 27WAS +3 closed · WAS covered
DET @ CINSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETCIN -343.5DET 17 at CIN 26CIN -3 closed · CIN covered
JAX @ SFSun, Dec 24 16:05 ETSF -443JAX 33 at SF 44SF -4 closed · SF covered
LAC @ NYJSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETNYJ -7.542.5LAC 14 at NYJ 7NYJ -7.5 closed · NYJ covered
LA @ TENSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETTEN -5.546LA 27 at TEN 23TEN -5.5 closed · TEN covered
MIA @ KCSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETKC +1143.5MIA 13 at KC 29KC +11 closed · KC covered
NYG @ ARISun, Dec 24 16:25 ETARI +339NYG 0 at ARI 23ARI +3 closed · ARI covered
SEA @ DALSun, Dec 24 16:25 ETDAL +4.547SEA 21 at DAL 12DAL +4.5 closed · SEA covered
TB @ CARSun, Dec 24 13:00 ETCAR +1046.5TB 19 at CAR 22CAR +10 closed · TB covered
OAK @ PHIMon, Dec 25 20:30 ETPHI +1046OAK 10 at PHI 19PHI +10 closed · OAK covered
PIT @ HOUMon, Dec 25 16:30 ETHOU -845.5PIT 34 at HOU 6HOU -8 closed · PIT covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @ NO
WIN ATL +5.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 42-19 (69%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 71-38 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 58-34 (63%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
IND @ BAL
WIN BAL -13.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 58-32 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 48-28 (63%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
JAC @ SF
WIN JAC -4 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 48-28 (63%)
  • and 7 more angles on this side
MIA @ KC
LOSS KC -11 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 42-28 (60%)
LAR @ TEN
WIN LAR -5.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 53-30 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 72-41 (64%)
  • and 12 more angles on this side
LV @ PHI
LOSS PHI -10 1.0u
  • model likes them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), won last week, better record 27-17 (61%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, big favorite (7+), won last week 28-18 (61%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), won last week 28-18 (61%)
DEN @ WAS
WIN WAS -3 3.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 21-9 (70%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 23-10 (70%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 32-15 (68%)
  • and 12 more angles on this side
NYG @ ARI TOTAL
LOSS Over 39.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 85-50 (63%)
ATL @ NO TOTAL
LOSS Over 52.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 19-8 (70%)
DET @ CIN TOTAL
LOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 64-47 (58%)
OAK @ PHI TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 26-21 (55%)
LA @ TEN TOTAL
WIN Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 26-21 (55%)
PIT @ HOU TOTAL
WIN Under 45.5 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 56-42 (57%)
LAC @ NYJ TOTAL
WIN Under 42.5 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 56-42 (57%)
MIN @ GB TOTAL
WIN Under 41.0 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 56-42 (57%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 15 The 2017 record Week 17 →

Go deeper

Opens This week's board Plays, trends and college leans Matchup previews Shop every book