Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 1.
16 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, -0.3u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 3-3, -0.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  PHIThu, Sep 6 20:20 ET | PHI +1 | 44.5 | ATL 12 at PHI 18PHI +1 closed · PHI covered |
 BUF @  BALSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | BAL +7.5 | 39 | BUF 3 at BAL 47BAL +7.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Sep 9 20:20 ET | GB +6.5 | 45 | CHI 23 at GB 24GB +6.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  INDSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | IND -1 | 47.5 | CIN 34 at IND 23IND -1 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  CARSun, Sep 9 16:25 ET | CAR +2.5 | 42.5 | DAL 8 at CAR 16CAR +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 HOU @  NESun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | NE +6 | 49.5 | HOU 20 at NE 27NE +6 closed · NE covered |
 JAX @  NYGSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | NYG -2.5 | 43 | JAX 20 at NYG 15NYG -2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  LACSun, Sep 9 16:05 ET | LAC +3.5 | 48 | KC 38 at LAC 28LAC +3.5 closed · KC covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | CLE -3.5 | 41 | PIT 21 at CLE 21CLE -3.5 closed · CLE covered |
 SEA @  DENSun, Sep 9 16:25 ET | DEN +3 | 42.5 | SEA 24 at DEN 27DEN +3 closed · push |
 SF @  MINSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | MIN +6 | 46.5 | SF 16 at MIN 24MIN +6 closed · MIN covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | NO +10 | 50 | TB 48 at NO 40NO +10 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  MIASun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | MIA -1 | 43.5 | TEN 20 at MIA 27MIA -1 closed · MIA covered |
 WAS @  ARISun, Sep 9 16:25 ET | ARI +2 | 43.5 | WAS 24 at ARI 6ARI +2 closed · WAS covered |
 LA @  OAKMon, Sep 10 22:20 ET | OAK -6 | 47.5 | LA 33 at OAK 13OAK -6 closed · LA covered |
 NYJ @  DETMon, Sep 10 19:10 ET | DET +7 | 44 | NYJ 48 at DET 17DET +7 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NYJ @ DET - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), at home, in a dome 29-18 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, in a dome 35-23 (60%)
HOU @ NE - model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, on turf, high total (48+) 51-32 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better coach, on turf, high total (48+) 46-29 (61%)
BUF @ BAL TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
WAS @ ARI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
SF @ MIN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
HOU @ NE TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.