Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 15.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, -6.1u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 86-72, +8.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LAC @  KCThu, Dec 13 20:20 ET | KC +3.5 | 54 | LAC 29 at KC 28KC +3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 CLE @  DENSat, Dec 15 20:20 ET | DEN +1 | 47 | CLE 17 at DEN 16DEN +1 closed · CLE covered |
 HOU @  NYJSat, Dec 15 16:30 ET | NYJ -7 | 44 | HOU 29 at NYJ 22NYJ -7 closed · push |
 ARI @  ATLSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | ATL +10 | 43.5 | ARI 14 at ATL 40ATL +10 closed · ATL covered |
 DAL @  INDSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 47 | DAL 0 at IND 23IND +3 closed · IND covered |
 DET @  BUFSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | BUF +2.5 | 40 | DET 13 at BUF 14BUF +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | CHI +6 | 46.5 | GB 17 at CHI 24CHI +6 closed · CHI covered |
 MIA @  MINSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | MIN +7.5 | 45 | MIA 17 at MIN 41MIN +7.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  PITSun, Dec 16 16:25 ET | PIT -2.5 | 55 | NE 10 at PIT 17PIT -2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 OAK @  CINSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 46 | OAK 16 at CIN 30CIN +3 closed · CIN covered |
 PHI @  LASun, Dec 16 20:20 ET | LA +13.5 | 52.5 | PHI 30 at LA 23LA +13.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Dec 16 16:05 ET | SF -3.5 | 44 | SEA 23 at SF 26SF -3.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  BALSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | BAL +8.5 | 44.5 | TB 12 at BAL 20BAL +8.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  NYGSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | NYG -2.5 | 42 | TEN 17 at NYG 0NYG -2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  JAXSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | JAX +7.5 | 36 | WAS 16 at JAX 13JAX +7.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NO @  CARMon, Dec 17 20:15 ET | CAR -6 | 50.5 | NO 12 at CAR 9CAR -6 closed · CAR covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ ATL LOSS ATL -10 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 22-9 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 19-8 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 47-23 (67%)
- and 31 more angles on this side
DAL @ IND LOSS IND -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 45-26 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 58-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 51-33 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIA @ MIN LOSS MIN -7.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 23-5 (82%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 31-12 (72%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 22-9 (71%)
- and 35 more angles on this side
TEN @ NYG LOSS NYG +2.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, bad QB, on turf 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, on turf 14-8 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 31-20 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PHI @ LAR WIN PHI +13.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), better QB, elite QB 19-11 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 58-38 (60%)
SEA @ SF WIN SEA -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 72-46 (61%)
TB @ BAL WIN TB +8.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 31-19 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 23-15 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
MIA @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 35-16 (69%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 71-50 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 88-63 (58%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
DET @ BUF TOTALLOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 68-50 (58%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
NO @ CAR TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
GB @ CHI TOTALWIN Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
LAC @ KC TOTALLOSS Under 54.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.