Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 5.
15 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-6, -3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 23-30, -13.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  NEThu, Oct 4 20:20 ET | NE +10.5 | 49.5 | IND 24 at NE 38NE +10.5 closed · NE covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Oct 7 16:25 ET | SF +3 | 40.5 | ARI 28 at SF 18SF +3 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  PITSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | PIT +3.5 | 57 | ATL 17 at PIT 41PIT +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | CLE -3 | 44.5 | BAL 9 at CLE 12CLE -3 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  HOUSun, Oct 7 20:20 ET | HOU +3.5 | 45 | DAL 16 at HOU 19HOU +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  NYJSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | NYJ -1 | 42 | DEN 16 at NYJ 34NYJ -1 closed · NYJ covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | DET +1 | 50 | GB 23 at DET 31DET +1 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  KCSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | KC +3 | 48 | JAX 14 at KC 30KC +3 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  SEASun, Oct 7 16:25 ET | SEA -7.5 | 50.5 | LA 33 at SEA 31SEA -7.5 closed · SEA covered |
 MIA @  CINSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | CIN +6 | 47.5 | MIA 17 at CIN 27CIN +6 closed · CIN covered |
 MIN @  PHISun, Oct 7 16:25 ET | PHI +3.5 | 48 | MIN 23 at PHI 21PHI +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  CARSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | CAR +7 | 43.5 | NYG 31 at CAR 33CAR +7 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  LACSun, Oct 7 16:05 ET | LAC +5.5 | 52 | OAK 10 at LAC 26LAC +5.5 closed · LAC covered |
 TEN @  BUFSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | BUF -6 | 38 | TEN 12 at BUF 13BUF -6 closed · BUF covered |
 WAS @  NOMon, Oct 8 20:15 ET | NO +5.5 | 51.5 | WAS 19 at NO 43NO +5.5 closed · NO covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, better coach, low total (41 or under) 14-7 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 58-35 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 111-70 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DEN @ NYJ - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 47-30 (61%)
DAL @ HOU - model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 45-26 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 58-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 51-33 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
JAC @ KC - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 18-12 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, high total (48+) 27-18 (60%)
MIN @ PHI - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, high total (48+) 22-13 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 24-15 (62%)
JAX @ KC TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 25-8 (76%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-31 (64%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TEN @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
LA @ SEA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
MIN @ PHI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
DEN @ NYJ TOTAL- over when road team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 25-18 (58%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.