Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 10.
14 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-5, +0.3u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 51-51, -5.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  PITThu, Nov 8 20:20 ET | PIT +3.5 | 51 | CAR 21 at PIT 52PIT +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 ARI @  KCSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | KC +16.5 | 49.5 | ARI 14 at KC 26KC +16.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  CLESun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | CLE -5.5 | 49.5 | ATL 16 at CLE 28CLE -5.5 closed · CLE covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | NYJ +6.5 | 38 | BUF 41 at NYJ 10NYJ +6.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Nov 11 20:20 ET | PHI +7.5 | 45.5 | DAL 27 at PHI 20PHI +7.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | CHI +7.5 | 44.5 | DET 22 at CHI 34CHI +7.5 closed · CHI covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 48 | JAX 26 at IND 29IND +3 closed · push |
 LAC @  OAKSun, Nov 11 16:05 ET | OAK -10.5 | 50 | LAC 20 at OAK 6OAK -10.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  GBSun, Nov 11 16:25 ET | GB +13 | 48.5 | MIA 12 at GB 31GB +13 closed · GB covered |
 NE @  TENSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | TEN -6 | 47 | NE 10 at TEN 34TEN -6 closed · TEN covered |
 NO @  CINSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | CIN -5.5 | 53 | NO 51 at CIN 14CIN -5.5 closed · NO covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Nov 11 16:25 ET | LA +10 | 51 | SEA 31 at LA 36LA +10 closed · SEA covered |
 WAS @  TBSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | TB +3.5 | 51 | WAS 16 at TB 3TB +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NYG @  SFMon, Nov 12 20:15 ET | SF +3 | 45 | NYG 27 at SF 23SF +3 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CLE WIN ATL -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 60-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 75-48 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 80-52 (61%)
BUF @ NYJ WIN BUF +6.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 54-35 (61%)
CAR @ PIT WIN CAR +3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 64-41 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 59-39 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DET @ CHI LOSS CHI -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 64-41 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, division game 35-23 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 59-39 (60%)
MIA @ GB LOSS GB -13 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 22-14 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 77-51 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 33-22 (60%)
ARI @ KC WIN KC -16.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 54-25 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 34-19 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better coach 19-11 (63%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
NE @ TEN LOSS NE -6 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, more rest than the opponent 32-19 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, more rest than the opponent 28-17 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, better QB 54-33 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NO @ CIN LOSS NO -5.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 33-14 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 54-25 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 28-13 (68%)
- and 33 more angles on this side
NE @ TEN TOTALLOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 88-63 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 152-111 (58%)
LAC @ OAK TOTALWIN Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big underdog 17-7 (71%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.