Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 12.
15 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-3, +7.7u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 65-54, +13.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  NOThu, Nov 22 20:20 ET | NO +11.5 | 61 | ATL 17 at NO 31NO +11.5 closed · NO covered |
 CHI @  DETThu, Nov 22 12:30 ET | DET -3 | 43 | CHI 23 at DET 16DET -3 closed · CHI covered |
 WAS @  DALThu, Nov 22 16:30 ET | DAL +7 | 40 | WAS 23 at DAL 31DAL +7 closed · DAL covered |
 ARI @  LACSun, Nov 25 16:05 ET | LAC +14 | 43.5 | ARI 10 at LAC 45LAC +14 closed · LAC covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | CIN -1 | 46.5 | CLE 35 at CIN 20CIN -1 closed · CLE covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Nov 25 20:20 ET | MIN +4 | 48.5 | GB 17 at MIN 24MIN +4 closed · MIN covered |
 JAX @  BUFSun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | BUF -3 | 36.5 | JAX 21 at BUF 24BUF -3 closed · BUF covered |
 MIA @  INDSun, Nov 25 16:25 ET | IND +9 | 52.5 | MIA 24 at IND 27IND +9 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | NYJ -13 | 46.5 | NE 27 at NYJ 13NYJ -13 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | PHI +4.5 | 49 | NYG 22 at PHI 25PHI +4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  BALSun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | BAL +13 | 42 | OAK 17 at BAL 34BAL +13 closed · BAL covered |
 PIT @  DENSun, Nov 25 16:25 ET | DEN -3 | 47.5 | PIT 17 at DEN 24DEN -3 closed · DEN covered |
 SEA @  CARSun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | CAR +3 | 46.5 | SEA 30 at CAR 27CAR +3 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  TBSun, Nov 25 13:00 ET | TB +1.5 | 54.5 | SF 9 at TB 27TB +1.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  HOUMon, Nov 26 20:15 ET | HOU +3.5 | 42.5 | TEN 17 at HOU 34HOU +3.5 closed · HOU covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ CIN - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 112-67 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 75-49 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 137-90 (60%)
CHI @ DET - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, division game, in a dome 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, worse record, division game, in a dome 31-20 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, worse record, in a dome 30-20 (60%)
MIA @ IND - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 17-7 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 54-25 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 45-22 (67%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
NYG @ PHI - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, division game 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, better coach, high total (48+) 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ HOU - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 23-5 (82%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 20-7 (74%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 31-12 (72%)
- and 36 more angles on this side
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 60-45 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
NYG @ PHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
WAS @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
JAX @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
SF @ TB TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 39-15 (72%)
- over when road team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 25-18 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.