Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 16.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-2, +6.7u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 95-74, +15.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  LACSat, Dec 22 20:20 ET | LAC +4 | 42.5 | BAL 22 at LAC 10LAC +4 closed · BAL covered |
 WAS @  TENSat, Dec 22 16:30 ET | TEN +12.5 | 38 | WAS 16 at TEN 25TEN +12.5 closed · WAS covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | 46.5 | ATL 24 at CAR 10CAR -2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | NE +14 | 46 | BUF 12 at NE 24NE +14 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  SFSun, Dec 23 16:05 ET | SF -3.5 | 44 | CHI 14 at SF 9SF -3.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | CLE +10 | 44 | CIN 18 at CLE 26CLE +10 closed · CIN covered |
 GB @  NYJSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | NYJ -3 | 47.5 | GB 44 at NYJ 38NYJ -3 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  PHISun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | PHI +1 | 47 | HOU 30 at PHI 32PHI +1 closed · PHI covered |
 JAX @  MIASun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 39.5 | JAX 17 at MIA 7MIA +3 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  SEASun, Dec 23 20:20 ET | SEA -1 | 54 | KC 31 at SEA 38SEA -1 closed · SEA covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Dec 23 16:05 ET | ARI -14.5 | 43 | LA 31 at ARI 9ARI -14.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | DET -6.5 | 41.5 | MIN 27 at DET 9DET -6.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  INDSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | IND +10 | 48.5 | NYG 27 at IND 28IND +10 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  NOSun, Dec 23 16:25 ET | NO +6.5 | 53 | PIT 28 at NO 31NO +6.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  DALSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | DAL +7 | 48 | TB 20 at DAL 27DAL +7 closed · push |
 DEN @  OAKMon, Dec 24 20:15 ET | OAK -2.5 | 42.5 | DEN 14 at OAK 27OAK -2.5 closed · OAK covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CAR LOSS ATL -2.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 23-12 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 28-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, division game 16-10 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
GB @ NYJ LOSS GB -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 52-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 47-30 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
KC @ SEA WIN KC -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 112-67 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 137-90 (60%)
BUF @ NE WIN NE -14 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 66-38 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 79-48 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 32-20 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
HOU @ PHI WIN PHI -1 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 49-25 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 44-23 (66%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 35-23 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ TEN WIN TEN -12.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 62-37 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 111-70 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 96-63 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PIT @ NO TOTALWIN Over 53.0 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 71-50 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 88-63 (58%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
DEN @ OAK TOTALWIN Under 42.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
LA @ ARI TOTALWIN Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
MIN @ DET TOTALWIN Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
BUF @ NE TOTALWIN Under 46.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.