Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 2.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, -0.7u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 9-9, -1.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  CINThu, Sep 13 20:20 ET | CIN +1 | 43 | BAL 23 at CIN 34CIN +1 closed · CIN covered |
 ARI @  LASun, Sep 16 16:05 ET | LA +13.5 | 43.5 | ARI 0 at LA 34LA +13.5 closed · LA covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | ATL +5.5 | 44 | CAR 24 at ATL 31ATL +5.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CLE @  NOSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | NO +10 | 51 | CLE 18 at NO 21NO +10 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  SFSun, Sep 16 16:05 ET | SF +6 | 48.5 | DET 27 at SF 30SF +6 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 41 | HOU 17 at TEN 20TEN -3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 IND @  WASSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | WAS +6 | 48 | IND 21 at WAS 9WAS +6 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  PITSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | PIT +4.5 | 52 | KC 42 at PIT 37PIT +4.5 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  BUFSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | BUF -7.5 | 41.5 | LAC 31 at BUF 20BUF -7.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | NYJ +3 | 43 | MIA 20 at NYJ 12NYJ +3 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | GB -2 | 45 | MIN 29 at GB 29GB -2 closed · GB covered |
 NE @  JAXSun, Sep 16 16:25 ET | JAX -2 | 44.5 | NE 20 at JAX 31JAX -2 closed · JAX covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 16 20:20 ET | DAL +3 | 42 | NYG 13 at DAL 20DAL +3 closed · DAL covered |
 OAK @  DENSun, Sep 16 16:25 ET | DEN +5.5 | 44.5 | OAK 19 at DEN 20DEN +5.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  TBSun, Sep 16 13:00 ET | TB -3 | 46.5 | PHI 21 at TB 27TB -3 closed · TB covered |
 SEA @  CHIMon, Sep 17 20:15 ET | CHI +5 | 42.5 | SEA 17 at CHI 24CHI +5 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CIN - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 112-67 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 60-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 75-48 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
MIN @ GB - model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, division game 56-34 (62%)
CLE @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 28-13 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 17-8 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 47-23 (67%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
MIA @ NYJ - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 22-10 (69%)
KC @ PIT - model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, worse record, better QB 23-15 (60%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 35-23 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ARI @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-31 (64%)
- over when home team off Monday night 152-111 (58%)
MIA @ NYJ TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-31 (64%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 63-41 (61%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 71-50 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ JAX TOTAL- over when windy, early season 40-29 (58%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
SEA @ CHI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
DET @ SF TOTAL- over when road team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 25-18 (58%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
LAC @ BUF TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.