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Weekly Lines · 2018

Week 6.

15 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 13-4, +10.6u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 36-34, -2.8u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
PHI @ NYGThu, Oct 11 20:20 ETNYG -1.545.5PHI 34 at NYG 13NYG -1.5 closed · PHI covered
ARI @ MINSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETMIN +1043.5ARI 17 at MIN 27MIN +10 closed · push
BAL @ TENSun, Oct 14 16:25 ETTEN -2.543.5BAL 21 at TEN 0TEN -2.5 closed · BAL covered
BUF @ HOUSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETHOU +10.540.5BUF 13 at HOU 20HOU +10.5 closed · BUF covered
CAR @ WASSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETWAS -144.5CAR 17 at WAS 23WAS -1 closed · WAS covered
CHI @ MIASun, Oct 14 13:00 ETMIA -7.540.5CHI 28 at MIA 31MIA -7.5 closed · MIA covered
IND @ NYJSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETNYJ +2.547.5IND 34 at NYJ 42NYJ +2.5 closed · NYJ covered
JAX @ DALSun, Oct 14 16:25 ETDAL -339.5JAX 7 at DAL 40DAL -3 closed · DAL covered
KC @ NESun, Oct 14 20:20 ETNE +459.5KC 40 at NE 43NE +4 closed · KC covered
LAC @ CLESun, Oct 14 13:00 ETCLE +147LAC 38 at CLE 14CLE +1 closed · LAC covered
LA @ DENSun, Oct 14 16:05 ETDEN -750LA 23 at DEN 20DEN -7 closed · DEN covered
PIT @ CINSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETCIN +149.5PIT 28 at CIN 21CIN +1 closed · PIT covered
SEA @ OAKSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETOAK -347.5SEA 27 at OAK 3OAK -3 closed · SEA covered
TB @ ATLSun, Oct 14 13:00 ETATL +357.5TB 29 at ATL 34ATL +3 closed · ATL covered
SF @ GBMon, Oct 15 20:15 ETGB +946.5SF 30 at GB 33GB +9 closed · SF covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

IND @ NYJ
WIN IND +2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, on turf 48-31 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 137-90 (60%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 21-14 (60%)
JAC @ DAL
WIN JAC -3 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 19-8 (70%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 25-14 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 37-21 (64%)
  • and 8 more angles on this side
LAC @ CLE
WIN LAC +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 29-18 (62%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 27-18 (60%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 21-14 (60%)
LAR @ DEN
WIN LAR -7 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, worse QB 14-9 (61%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, worse QB 14-9 (61%)
PHI @ NYG
WIN PHI -1.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 122-77 (61%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, lost last week 12-8 (60%)
CAR @ WAS
WIN WAS +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better QB 14-8 (64%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 31-19 (62%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 24-15 (62%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
CAR @ WAS TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-31 (64%)
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 63-41 (61%)
  • over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 88-63 (58%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
PIT @ CIN TOTAL
WIN Under 49.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL
LOSS Under 45.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
JAX @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
BUF @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
LA @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Under 50.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
SF @ GB TOTAL
WIN Over 46.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
TB @ ATL TOTAL
WIN Over 57.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
LAC @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
ARI @ MIN TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
SEA @ OAK TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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