Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 8.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 40-43, -8.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA @  HOUThu, Oct 25 20:20 ET | HOU +7.5 | 45 | MIA 23 at HOU 42HOU +7.5 closed · HOU covered |
 BAL @  CARSun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | 44 | BAL 21 at CAR 36CAR -2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | PIT +8.5 | 47.5 | CLE 18 at PIT 33PIT +8.5 closed · PIT covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | KC +8.5 | 53 | DEN 23 at KC 30KC +8.5 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  LASun, Oct 28 16:25 ET | LA +7.5 | 57 | GB 27 at LA 29LA +7.5 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  OAKSun, Oct 28 16:05 ET | OAK -3.5 | 51 | IND 42 at OAK 28OAK -3.5 closed · IND covered |
 NO @  MINSun, Oct 28 20:20 ET | MIN -2.5 | 53.5 | NO 30 at MIN 20MIN -2.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  CHISun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | CHI +8.5 | 42.5 | NYJ 10 at CHI 24CHI +8.5 closed · CHI covered |
 PHI @  JAXSun, Oct 28 21:30 ET | JAX -4 | 44.5 | PHI 24 at JAX 18JAX -4 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  DETSun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | DET +3 | 47.5 | SEA 28 at DET 14DET +3 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Oct 28 16:25 ET | ARI -2.5 | 40 | SF 15 at ARI 18ARI -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 TB @  CINSun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 55 | TB 34 at CIN 37CIN +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Oct 28 13:00 ET | NYG -1 | 43 | WAS 20 at NYG 13NYG -1 closed · WAS covered |
 NE @  BUFMon, Oct 29 20:15 ET | BUF -13.5 | 44 | NE 25 at BUF 6BUF -13.5 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SEA @ DET - model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 72-46 (61%)
IND @ 
LV - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better record 28-17 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 62-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 30-19 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NO @ MIN - model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, on turf, high total (48+) 51-32 (61%)
TB @ CIN - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 43-25 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 35-21 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, high total (48+) 22-14 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NE @ BUF TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big underdog 17-7 (71%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 60-45 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
CLE @ PIT TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
NYJ @ CHI TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 42-32 (57%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
GB @ LA TOTAL- over when road team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 25-18 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.