Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 4.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, -1.8u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 19-24, -9.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  LAThu, Sep 27 20:20 ET | LA +7.5 | 48.5 | MIN 31 at LA 38LA +7.5 closed · MIN covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Sep 30 20:20 ET | PIT +3 | 51 | BAL 26 at PIT 14PIT +3 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  GBSun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | GB +8.5 | 44 | BUF 0 at GB 22GB +8.5 closed · GB covered |
 CIN @  ATLSun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 52 | CIN 37 at ATL 36ATL +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  OAKSun, Sep 30 16:05 ET | OAK +2.5 | 44.5 | CLE 42 at OAK 45OAK +2.5 closed · OAK covered |
 DET @  DALSun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | DAL +2.5 | 44 | DET 24 at DAL 26DAL +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | IND -1 | 48 | HOU 37 at IND 34IND -1 closed · HOU covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | NE +6.5 | 50.5 | MIA 7 at NE 38NE +6.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  NYGSun, Sep 30 16:25 ET | NYG -3.5 | 51.5 | NO 33 at NYG 18NYG -3.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  JAXSun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | JAX +7.5 | 40.5 | NYJ 12 at JAX 31JAX +7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 PHI @  TENSun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | TEN -3 | 41.5 | PHI 23 at TEN 26TEN -3 closed · TEN covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Sep 30 16:05 ET | ARI -3.5 | 40 | SEA 20 at ARI 17ARI -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 SF @  LACSun, Sep 30 16:25 ET | LAC +10 | 46 | SF 27 at LAC 29LAC +10 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  CHISun, Sep 30 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 46 | TB 10 at CHI 48CHI +3 closed · CHI covered |
 KC @  DENMon, Oct 1 20:15 ET | DEN -3.5 | 53.5 | KC 27 at DEN 23DEN -3.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SEA @ ARI WIN ARI +3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 66-41 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 46-30 (60%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, division game, in a dome 61-40 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
HOU @ IND LOSS IND +1 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, in a dome 33-19 (64%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, better coach, high total (48+) 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 66-41 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
KC @ DEN LOSS KC -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, division game 56-34 (62%)
SF @ LAC WIN LAC -10 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 77-51 (60%)
MIA @ NE LOSS NE -6.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 19-10 (66%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 19-10 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 44-25 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
BAL @ PIT LOSS PIT -3 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 49-25 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 44-23 (66%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, worse record, better QB 13-7 (65%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
BAL @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 51.0 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-31 (64%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 63-41 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
NYJ @ JAX TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
SF @ LAC TOTALWIN Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
CLE @ OAK TOTALWIN Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
PHI @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 77-51 (60%)
MIN @ LA TOTALWIN Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.