Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 17.
16 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 10-7, +2.2u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 105-81, +17.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SEASun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | SEA +15.5 | 39.5 | ARI 24 at SEA 27SEA +15.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | TB -2.5 | 52 | ATL 34 at TB 32TB -2.5 closed · TB covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | NO +8 | 42 | CAR 33 at NO 14NO +8 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | MIN +6 | 39.5 | CHI 24 at MIN 10MIN +6 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | PIT +14 | 45.5 | CIN 13 at PIT 16PIT +14 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | BAL +7 | 41 | CLE 24 at BAL 26BAL +7 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | NYG +7.5 | 38.5 | DAL 36 at NYG 35NYG +7.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | GB +7.5 | 44.5 | DET 31 at GB 0GB +7.5 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Dec 30 20:20 ET | TEN -5 | 42.5 | IND 33 at TEN 17TEN -5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | HOU +7 | 39.5 | JAX 3 at HOU 20HOU +7 closed · HOU covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | DEN -7 | 43.5 | LAC 23 at DEN 9DEN -7 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | BUF +5.5 | 39.5 | MIA 17 at BUF 42BUF +5.5 closed · BUF covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | NE +14 | 47 | NYJ 3 at NE 38NE +14 closed · NE covered |
 OAK @  KCSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | KC +14.5 | 54 | OAK 3 at KC 35KC +14.5 closed · KC covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | WAS -6 | 43 | PHI 24 at WAS 0WAS -6 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  LASun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | LA +10.5 | 50.5 | SF 32 at LA 48LA +10.5 closed · LA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ TB WIN ATL -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 60-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 75-48 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 80-52 (61%)
MIA @ BUF LOSS BUF -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 66-38 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 62-37 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 58-35 (62%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
CLE @ BAL WIN CLE +7 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 49-25 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 43-25 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, division game 22-14 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DET @ GB WIN GB -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, division game 35-23 (60%)
SF @ LAR WIN LAR -10.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, high total (48+) 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, better coach, high total (48+) 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PHI @ WAS LOSS PHI -6 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 54-25 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, division game 38-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 65-38 (63%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
CIN @ PIT WIN PIT -14 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 66-38 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 32-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 83-52 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
OAK @ KC TOTALWIN Under 54.0 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 42-32 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
DET @ GB TOTALWIN Under 44.5 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 42-32 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
IND @ TEN TOTALLOSS Under 42.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
CLE @ BAL TOTALLOSS Under 41.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
SF @ LA TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
CIN @ PIT TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
PHI @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
NYJ @ NE TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
CAR @ NO TOTALLOSS Under 42.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
ATL @ TB TOTALLOSS Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.