Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 3.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-9, -6.9u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 12-18, -7.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  CLEThu, Sep 20 20:20 ET | CLE +3 | 41 | NYJ 17 at CLE 21CLE +3 closed · CLE covered |
 BUF @  MINSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | MIN +16.5 | 41 | BUF 27 at MIN 6MIN +16.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  ARISun, Sep 23 16:25 ET | ARI -6 | 39 | CHI 16 at ARI 14ARI -6 closed · ARI covered |
 CIN @  CARSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 44 | CIN 21 at CAR 31CAR +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 DAL @  SEASun, Sep 23 16:25 ET | SEA +1 | 40 | DAL 13 at SEA 24SEA +1 closed · SEA covered |
 DEN @  BALSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | BAL +5.5 | 46 | DEN 14 at BAL 27BAL +5.5 closed · BAL covered |
 GB @  WASSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | WAS -2.5 | 46.5 | GB 17 at WAS 31WAS -2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 IND @  PHISun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | PHI +6.5 | 45.5 | IND 16 at PHI 20PHI +6.5 closed · IND covered |
 LAC @  LASun, Sep 23 16:05 ET | LA +7.5 | 49 | LAC 23 at LA 35LA +7.5 closed · LA covered |
 NE @  DETSun, Sep 23 20:20 ET | DET -7 | 55.5 | NE 10 at DET 26DET -7 closed · DET covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | ATL +1.5 | 54 | NO 43 at ATL 37ATL +1.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  HOUSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | HOU +6.5 | 44 | NYG 27 at HOU 22HOU +6.5 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  MIASun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 46 | OAK 20 at MIA 28MIA +3 closed · MIA covered |
 SF @  KCSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | KC +6 | 53 | SF 27 at KC 38KC +6 closed · KC covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Sep 23 13:00 ET | JAX +10 | 39 | TEN 9 at JAX 6JAX +10 closed · TEN covered |
 PIT @  TBMon, Sep 24 20:15 ET | TB +1 | 55 | PIT 30 at TB 27TB +1 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ MIN - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 62-37 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), at home, in a dome 29-18 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 111-70 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
NYG @ HOU - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 137-90 (60%)
DAL @ SEA - model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, worse record, on turf 36-22 (62%)
SF @ KC - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 58-38 (60%)
DAL @ SEA TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 35-16 (69%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-31 (64%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 63-41 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
CHI @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 20-11 (64%)
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
- over when low total (41 or under), road team off Monday night 31-21 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BUF @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
NE @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
TEN @ JAX TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
NYJ @ CLE TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 198-155 (56%)
DEN @ BAL TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
OAK @ MIA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 135-109 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.