Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 14.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 80-66, +14.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 JAX @  TENThu, Dec 6 20:20 ET | TEN +5.5 | 36.5 | JAX 9 at TEN 30TEN +5.5 closed · TEN covered |
 ATL @  GBSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | GB +4 | 51 | ATL 20 at GB 34GB +4 closed · GB covered |
 BAL @  KCSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | KC +6.5 | 49 | BAL 24 at KC 27KC +6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  CLESun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | CLE -1 | 48 | CAR 20 at CLE 26CLE -1 closed · CLE covered |
 CIN @  LACSun, Dec 9 16:05 ET | LAC +17 | 48.5 | CIN 21 at LAC 26LAC +17 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  SFSun, Dec 9 16:05 ET | SF -3 | 45.5 | DEN 14 at SF 20SF -3 closed · SF covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Dec 9 16:25 ET | ARI -2.5 | 40 | DET 17 at ARI 3ARI -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | HOU +4 | 49.5 | IND 24 at HOU 21HOU +4 closed · IND covered |
 LA @  CHISun, Dec 9 20:20 ET | CHI -3 | 50.5 | LA 6 at CHI 15CHI -3 closed · CHI covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | MIA -8.5 | 49.5 | NE 33 at MIA 34MIA -8.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | TB -8.5 | 55 | NO 28 at TB 14TB -8.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 40.5 | NYG 40 at WAS 16WAS -3 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | BUF +4.5 | 37 | NYJ 27 at BUF 23BUF +4.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Dec 9 16:25 ET | DAL +3.5 | 46 | PHI 23 at DAL 29DAL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 PIT @  OAKSun, Dec 9 16:25 ET | OAK -10.5 | 51 | PIT 21 at OAK 24OAK -10.5 closed · OAK covered |
 MIN @  SEAMon, Dec 10 20:15 ET | SEA +3 | 45.5 | MIN 7 at SEA 21SEA +3 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome 34-22 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, in a dome 34-22 (61%)
BAL @ KC - model likes them by 2.0+, better record, better coach, high total (48+) 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, high total (48+) 43-28 (61%)
LAR @ CHI - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 60-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 75-48 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 80-52 (61%)
MIN @ SEA - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 112-67 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, on turf 25-16 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, on turf 48-31 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ TB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 60-45 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DET @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
LA @ CHI TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 68-50 (58%)
CAR @ CLE TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 68-50 (58%)
PIT @ OAK TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
NE @ MIA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
IND @ HOU TOTAL- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
JAX @ TEN TOTAL- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.