Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 11.
13 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-0, +11.0u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 58-51, +5.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  SEAThu, Nov 15 20:20 ET | SEA +3 | 49 | GB 24 at SEA 27SEA +3 closed · push |
 CAR @  DETSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | DET -4 | 48 | CAR 19 at DET 20DET -4 closed · DET covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | BAL +6.5 | 44 | CIN 21 at BAL 24BAL +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  ATLSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 50 | DAL 22 at ATL 19ATL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  LACSun, Nov 18 16:05 ET | LAC +7.5 | 47 | DEN 23 at LAC 22LAC +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
 HOU @  WASSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 40.5 | HOU 23 at WAS 21WAS -3 closed · WAS covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Nov 18 20:20 ET | CHI +2.5 | 44 | MIN 20 at CHI 25CHI +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 OAK @  ARISun, Nov 18 16:05 ET | ARI +4.5 | 41 | OAK 23 at ARI 21ARI +4.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  NOSun, Nov 18 16:25 ET | NO +7 | 56.5 | PHI 7 at NO 48NO +7 closed · NO covered |
 PIT @  JAXSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | JAX -4 | 47 | PIT 20 at JAX 16JAX -4 closed · push |
 TB @  NYGSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 54.5 | TB 35 at NYG 38NYG +3 closed · push |
 TEN @  INDSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | IND +2 | 50 | TEN 10 at IND 38IND +2 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  LAMon, Nov 19 20:15 ET | LA +3 | 63.5 | KC 51 at LA 54LA +3 closed · push |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LV @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 47-23 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 19-12 (61%)
DAL @ ATL - model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 52-34 (60%)
TEN @ IND - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 31-19 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 64-41 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
HOU @ WAS - model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 22-9 (71%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, underdog, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 26-11 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 32-15 (68%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
TB @ NYG TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 63-41 (61%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 71-50 (59%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
OAK @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
MIN @ CHI TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 68-50 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.