Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 13.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 10-5, +4.4u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 75-59, +17.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO @  DALThu, Nov 29 20:20 ET | DAL -7 | 51.5 | NO 10 at DAL 13DAL -7 closed · DAL covered |
 ARI @  GBSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | GB +13.5 | 41 | ARI 20 at GB 17GB +13.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  ATLSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 46.5 | BAL 26 at ATL 16ATL +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 40 | BUF 17 at MIA 21MIA +3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | TB -3.5 | 52 | CAR 17 at TB 24TB -3.5 closed · TB covered |
 CHI @  NYGSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | NYG -3.5 | 44 | CHI 27 at NYG 30NYG -3.5 closed · NYG covered |
 CLE @  HOUSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | HOU +5 | 47.5 | CLE 13 at HOU 29HOU +5 closed · HOU covered |
 DEN @  CINSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | CIN -3.5 | 45 | DEN 24 at CIN 10CIN -3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | JAX -4 | 45.5 | IND 0 at JAX 6JAX -4 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  OAKSun, Dec 2 16:05 ET | OAK -14 | 53.5 | KC 40 at OAK 33OAK -14 closed · OAK covered |
 LAC @  PITSun, Dec 2 20:20 ET | PIT +3.5 | 53.5 | LAC 33 at PIT 30PIT +3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  DETSun, Dec 2 13:00 ET | DET -10.5 | 54 | LA 30 at DET 16DET -10.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  NESun, Dec 2 16:25 ET | NE +6 | 50 | MIN 10 at NE 24NE +6 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  TENSun, Dec 2 16:05 ET | TEN +10.5 | 40.5 | NYJ 22 at TEN 26TEN +10.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Dec 2 16:25 ET | SEA +10 | 45.5 | SF 16 at SEA 43SEA +10 closed · SEA covered |
 WAS @  PHIMon, Dec 3 20:15 ET | PHI +5.5 | 45 | WAS 13 at PHI 28PHI +5.5 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ GB WIN ARI +13.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 25-16 (61%)
CLE @ HOU WIN CLE +5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 17-8 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 54-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 63-37 (63%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
DEN @ CIN LOSS DEN -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 88-53 (62%)
LAC @ PIT WIN LAC +3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 27-18 (60%)
WAS @ PHI LOSS PHI -5.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 54-25 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, division game 38-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 65-38 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYJ @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 88-63 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 152-111 (58%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 47-35 (57%)
CLE @ HOU TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 71-50 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 88-63 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 152-111 (58%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SF @ SEA TOTALLOSS Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
IND @ JAX TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 102-80 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
ARI @ GB TOTALWIN Under 41.0 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 42-32 (57%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 85-69 (55%)
BUF @ MIA TOTALWIN Under 40.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 85-69 (55%)
KC @ OAK TOTALLOSS Under 53.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
NO @ DAL TOTALWIN Under 51.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
WAS @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
CAR @ TB TOTALWIN Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 276-222 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.