Weekly Lines · 2018
Week 9.
13 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2018. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-3, +2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 45-46, -6.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 OAK @  SFThu, Nov 1 20:20 ET | SF -1.5 | 44 | OAK 3 at SF 34SF -1.5 closed · SF covered |
 ATL @  WASSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | WAS +1.5 | 46.5 | ATL 38 at WAS 14WAS +1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  BUFSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | BUF -10.5 | 38 | CHI 41 at BUF 9BUF -10.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | MIN +4.5 | 47 | DET 9 at MIN 24MIN +4.5 closed · MIN covered |
 GB @  NESun, Nov 4 20:20 ET | NE +5 | 56 | GB 17 at NE 31NE +5 closed · NE covered |
 HOU @  DENSun, Nov 4 16:05 ET | DEN +1 | 46.5 | HOU 19 at DEN 17DEN +1 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  CLESun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | CLE -7.5 | 51 | KC 37 at CLE 21CLE -7.5 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  SEASun, Nov 4 16:05 ET | SEA +1 | 48.5 | LAC 25 at SEA 17SEA +1 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  NOSun, Nov 4 16:25 ET | NO -2.5 | 57.5 | LA 35 at NO 45NO -2.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 43.5 | NYJ 6 at MIA 13MIA +3 closed · MIA covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | BAL +1.5 | 47 | PIT 23 at BAL 16BAL +1.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | CAR +6 | 55.5 | TB 28 at CAR 42CAR +6 closed · CAR covered |
 TEN @  DALMon, Nov 5 20:15 ET | DAL +4.5 | 40 | TEN 28 at DAL 14DAL +4.5 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ MIN - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 35-17 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 50-31 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 32-20 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LV @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse QB, better coach 16-10 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse QB, better coach 51-34 (60%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 30-20 (60%)
PIT @ BAL - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 73-41 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 122-77 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, elite QB, division game 77-50 (61%)
TB @ CAR - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, high total (48+) 22-14 (61%)
TEN @ DAL - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 88-53 (62%)
GB @ NE TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 71-50 (59%)
- over when home team off Monday night 152-111 (58%)
KC @ CLE TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big underdog 17-7 (71%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 29-13 (69%)
TEN @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 89-54 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 179-140 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.