Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 1.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, +0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 5-4, +0.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  CHIThu, Sep 5 20:20 ET | CHI +3.5 | 47 | GB 10 at CHI 3CHI +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 ATL @  MINSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 47 | ATL 12 at MIN 28MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 BAL @  MIASun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | MIA -7 | 41 | BAL 59 at MIA 10MIA -7 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 41 | BUF 17 at NYJ 16NYJ +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  SEASun, Sep 8 16:05 ET | SEA +9.5 | 44 | CIN 20 at SEA 21SEA +9.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | ARI -2.5 | 45.5 | DET 27 at ARI 27ARI -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 IND @  LACSun, Sep 8 16:05 ET | LAC +6 | 44.5 | IND 24 at LAC 30LAC +6 closed · push |
 KC @  JAXSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 49 | KC 40 at JAX 26JAX -3.5 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  CARSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CAR -1.5 | 49.5 | LA 30 at CAR 27CAR -1.5 closed · LA covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | DAL +7 | 44 | NYG 17 at DAL 35DAL +7 closed · DAL covered |
 PIT @  NESun, Sep 8 20:20 ET | NE +5.5 | 49 | PIT 3 at NE 33NE +5.5 closed · NE covered |
 SF @  TBSun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | TB +1 | 51 | SF 31 at TB 17TB +1 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  CLESun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CLE +5.5 | 44 | TEN 43 at CLE 13CLE +5.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  PHISun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | PHI +10.5 | 44 | WAS 27 at PHI 32PHI +10.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DEN @  OAKMon, Sep 9 22:20 ET | OAK -3 | 42.5 | DEN 16 at OAK 24OAK -3 closed · OAK covered |
 HOU @  NOMon, Sep 9 19:10 ET | NO +6.5 | 52 | HOU 28 at NO 30NO +6.5 closed · HOU covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ PHI - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 73-44 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 34-21 (62%)
DEN @ OAK TOTAL- over when windy, early season 42-29 (59%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 189-147 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
BAL @ MIA TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
CIN @ SEA TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
DET @ ARI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
SF @ TB TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
IND @ LAC TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
LA @ CAR TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.