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Weekly Lines · 2019

Week 16.

16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 8-10, -6.3u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 97-91, +0.1u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
BUF @ NESat, Dec 21 16:30 ETNE +739.5BUF 17 at NE 24NE +7 closed · push
HOU @ TBSat, Dec 21 13:00 ETTB -350HOU 23 at TB 20TB -3 closed · push
LA @ SFSat, Dec 21 20:15 ETSF +745.5LA 31 at SF 34SF +7 closed · LA covered
ARI @ SEASun, Dec 22 16:25 ETSEA +851ARI 27 at SEA 13SEA +8 closed · ARI covered
BAL @ CLESun, Dec 22 13:00 ETCLE -9.548.5BAL 31 at CLE 15CLE -9.5 closed · BAL covered
CAR @ INDSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETIND +7.546CAR 6 at IND 38IND +7.5 closed · IND covered
CIN @ MIASun, Dec 22 13:00 ETMIA -1.546CIN 35 at MIA 38MIA -1.5 closed · MIA covered
DAL @ PHISun, Dec 22 16:25 ETPHI -247DAL 9 at PHI 17PHI -2 closed · PHI covered
DET @ DENSun, Dec 22 16:05 ETDEN +9.540DET 17 at DEN 27DEN +9.5 closed · DEN covered
JAX @ ATLSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETATL +7.548JAX 12 at ATL 24ATL +7.5 closed · ATL covered
KC @ CHISun, Dec 22 20:20 ETCHI -6.545.5KC 26 at CHI 3CHI -6.5 closed · KC covered
NO @ TENSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETTEN -3.549NO 38 at TEN 28TEN -3.5 closed · NO covered
NYG @ WASSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETWAS -142NYG 41 at WAS 35WAS -1 closed · NYG covered
OAK @ LACSun, Dec 22 16:05 ETLAC +7.545OAK 24 at LAC 17LAC +7.5 closed · OAK covered
PIT @ NYJSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETNYJ -336.5PIT 10 at NYJ 16NYJ -3 closed · NYJ covered
GB @ MINMon, Dec 23 20:15 ETMIN +447GB 23 at MIN 10MIN +4 closed · GB covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ARI @ SEA
LOSS ARI +8 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, high total (48+) 33-20 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, high total (48+) 13-8 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, high total (48+) 29-18 (62%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
DAL @ PHI
WIN DAL -2 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-57 (62%)
CAR @ IND
LOSS IND -7.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 21-10 (68%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 22-11 (67%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 29-15 (66%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
LV @ LAC
WIN LAC -7.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 73-44 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 34-21 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 87-56 (61%)
GB @ MIN
LOSS MIN -4 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 22-10 (69%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 23-12 (66%)
NO @ TEN
LOSS NO -3.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 57-29 (66%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better coach 22-12 (65%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 67-37 (64%)
  • and 9 more angles on this side
NYG @ WAS
WIN NYG -1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
PIT @ NYJ
LOSS NYJ +3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, on turf 50-32 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, on turf 53-35 (60%)
CAR @ IND TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 75-55 (58%)
  • over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 39-29 (57%)
  • over when late season, home team off Monday night 51-38 (57%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
PIT @ NYJ TOTAL
LOSS Over 36.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 189-147 (56%)
BAL @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 37-17 (68%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
GB @ MIN TOTAL
WIN Under 47.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
DAL @ PHI TOTAL
WIN Under 47.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
ARI @ SEA TOTAL
WIN Under 51.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
OAK @ LAC TOTAL
WIN Under 45.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
NYG @ WAS TOTAL
LOSS Under 42.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
LA @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Under 45.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Under 39.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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