Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 7.
14 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, -3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 43-44, -6.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  DENThu, Oct 17 20:20 ET | DEN -3 | 49.5 | KC 30 at DEN 6DEN -3 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  NYGSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | NYG +3.5 | 49.5 | ARI 27 at NYG 21NYG +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  SEASun, Oct 20 16:25 ET | SEA +3 | 49 | BAL 30 at SEA 16SEA +3 closed · BAL covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | IND +1.5 | 46.5 | HOU 23 at IND 30IND +1.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  CINSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | CIN -4 | 44.5 | JAX 27 at CIN 17CIN -4 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  TENSun, Oct 20 16:05 ET | TEN +3 | 42.5 | LAC 20 at TEN 23TEN +3 closed · push |
 LA @  ATLSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | ATL -3 | 54.5 | LA 37 at ATL 10ATL -3 closed · LA covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | BUF +17 | 42.5 | MIA 21 at BUF 31BUF +17 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | DET -2.5 | 43.5 | MIN 42 at DET 30DET -2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  CHISun, Oct 20 16:25 ET | CHI +4 | 37 | NO 36 at CHI 25CHI +4 closed · NO covered |
 OAK @  GBSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | GB +5.5 | 48 | OAK 24 at GB 42GB +5.5 closed · GB covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Oct 20 20:20 ET | DAL +3 | 50 | PHI 10 at DAL 37DAL +3 closed · DAL covered |
 SF @  WASSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | WAS -10 | 39 | SF 9 at WAS 0WAS -10 closed · WAS covered |
 NE @  NYJMon, Oct 21 20:15 ET | NYJ -9.5 | 43 | NE 33 at NYJ 0NYJ -9.5 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ NYG - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 34-16 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 57-29 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 48-25 (66%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
PHI @ DAL - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 78-51 (60%)
KC @ DEN - model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 22-10 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 23-12 (66%)
HOU @ IND - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 53-28 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 47-28 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
NE @ NYJ - model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, better record 17-11 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, better QB 17-11 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
MIN @ DET TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 75-55 (58%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 39-29 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 158-124 (56%)
OAK @ GB TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 36-17 (68%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 39-20 (66%)
- over when home team off Monday night 158-124 (56%)
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.