Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 12.
14 games and 5 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-2, +0.8u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 69-63, +5.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  HOUThu, Nov 21 20:20 ET | HOU +3.5 | 46 | IND 17 at HOU 20HOU +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | NO +10 | 46 | CAR 31 at NO 34NO +10 closed · CAR covered |
 DAL @  NESun, Nov 24 16:25 ET | NE +5.5 | 44.5 | DAL 9 at NE 13NE +5.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  BUFSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | BUF +3.5 | 37 | DEN 3 at BUF 20BUF +3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DET @  WASSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | WAS -4 | 39 | DET 16 at WAS 19WAS -4 closed · WAS covered |
 GB @  SFSun, Nov 24 20:20 ET | SF +3 | 48 | GB 8 at SF 37SF +3 closed · SF covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Nov 24 16:05 ET | TEN +4.5 | 42 | JAX 20 at TEN 42TEN +4.5 closed · TEN covered |
 MIA @  CLESun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | CLE +11 | 45.5 | MIA 24 at CLE 41CLE +11 closed · CLE covered |
 NYG @  CHISun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | CHI +6 | 41 | NYG 14 at CHI 19CHI +6 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  NYJSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | NYJ -3.5 | 45 | OAK 3 at NYJ 34NYJ -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | CIN -5.5 | 37.5 | PIT 16 at CIN 10CIN -5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  PHISun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | PHI -1 | 45.5 | SEA 17 at PHI 9PHI -1 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 51.5 | TB 35 at ATL 22ATL +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 BAL @  LAMon, Nov 25 20:15 ET | LA -3.5 | 47 | BAL 45 at LA 6LA -3.5 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ LAR - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 85-56 (60%)
NYG @ CHI - model likes them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, lost last week, low total (41 or under) 30-20 (60%)
TB @ ATL - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 78-51 (60%)
JAC @ TEN - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, division game 32-21 (60%)
DET @ WAS TOTAL- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 87-70 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.