Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 9.
14 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-2, +2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 55-52, -2.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SF @  ARIThu, Oct 31 20:20 ET | ARI -10.5 | 43.5 | SF 28 at ARI 25ARI -10.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CHI @  PHISun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | PHI +5 | 41 | CHI 14 at PHI 22PHI +5 closed · PHI covered |
 CLE @  DENSun, Nov 3 16:25 ET | DEN -4 | 39 | CLE 19 at DEN 24DEN -4 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  OAKSun, Nov 3 16:05 ET | OAK +2.5 | 51.5 | DET 24 at OAK 31OAK +2.5 closed · OAK covered |
 GB @  LACSun, Nov 3 16:25 ET | LAC -4 | 50 | GB 11 at LAC 26LAC -4 closed · LAC covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Nov 3 09:30 ET | JAX +1 | 46 | HOU 26 at JAX 3JAX +1 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  PITSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | PIT +1 | 39.5 | IND 24 at PIT 26PIT +1 closed · PIT covered |
 MIN @  KCSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | KC -5.5 | 46 | MIN 23 at KC 26KC -5.5 closed · KC covered |
 NE @  BALSun, Nov 3 20:20 ET | BAL -3 | 44.5 | NE 20 at BAL 37BAL -3 closed · BAL covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | MIA -3.5 | 42.5 | NYJ 18 at MIA 26MIA -3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 TB @  SEASun, Nov 3 16:05 ET | SEA +4 | 51 | TB 34 at SEA 40SEA +4 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  CARSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | CAR +3.5 | 43 | TEN 20 at CAR 30CAR +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 WAS @  BUFSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | BUF +10.5 | 37 | WAS 9 at BUF 24BUF +10.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DAL @  NYGMon, Nov 4 20:15 ET | NYG -6.5 | 48.5 | DAL 37 at NYG 18NYG -6.5 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ BUF - model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, on turf, low total (41 or under) 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, lost last week, low total (41 or under) 26-15 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
CLE @ DEN - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 48-31 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 45-30 (60%)
DAL @ NYG - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 67-37 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-49 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, high total (48+) 33-20 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
HOU @ JAC - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
NE @ BAL - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 57-29 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better coach 22-12 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 67-37 (64%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
NYJ @ MIA - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 48-31 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ PIT TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night 158-124 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.