Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 4.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, +3.4u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 23-28, -7.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PHI @  GBThu, Sep 26 20:20 ET | GB +3.5 | 46 | PHI 34 at GB 27GB +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 CAR @  HOUSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | HOU +5.5 | 47.5 | CAR 16 at HOU 10HOU +5.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | BAL +7.5 | 47 | CLE 40 at BAL 25BAL +7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  NOSun, Sep 29 20:20 ET | NO -2.5 | 47 | DAL 10 at NO 12NO -2.5 closed · NO covered |
 JAX @  DENSun, Sep 29 16:25 ET | DEN +2.5 | 37 | JAX 26 at DEN 24DEN +2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DETSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | DET -7.5 | 54.5 | KC 34 at DET 30DET -7.5 closed · DET covered |
 LAC @  MIASun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | MIA -15 | 43.5 | LAC 30 at MIA 10MIA -15 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Sep 29 16:25 ET | CHI -1 | 38 | MIN 6 at CHI 16CHI -1 closed · CHI covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | BUF -7 | 41.5 | NE 16 at BUF 10BUF -7 closed · BUF covered |
 OAK @  INDSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | IND +5.5 | 46 | OAK 31 at IND 24IND +5.5 closed · OAK covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Sep 29 16:05 ET | ARI -5.5 | 49 | SEA 27 at ARI 10ARI -5.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  LASun, Sep 29 16:05 ET | LA +9 | 48.5 | TB 55 at LA 40LA +9 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  ATLSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 46 | TEN 24 at ATL 10ATL +3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 48 | WAS 3 at NYG 24NYG +3 closed · NYG covered |
 CIN @  PITMon, Sep 30 20:15 ET | PIT +3.5 | 45.5 | CIN 3 at PIT 27PIT +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, division game 41-25 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, division game 40-25 (62%)
CAR @ HOU - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 33-19 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 28-18 (61%)
DAL @ NO - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 44-23 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 31-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 27-15 (64%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
KC @ DET - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 30-14 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 29-16 (64%)
- and 21 more angles on this side
LV @ IND - model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 40-25 (62%)
TB @ LAR - model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), better QB, high total (48+) 12-8 (60%)
KC @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 37-17 (68%)
JAX @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
TB @ LA TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
DAL @ NO TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
CAR @ HOU TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
WAS @ NYG TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 40-16 (71%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
OAK @ IND TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.