Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 11.
14 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-7, +2.2u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 66-61, +4.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  CLEThu, Nov 14 20:20 ET | CLE +3 | 41.5 | PIT 7 at CLE 21CLE +3 closed · CLE covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Nov 17 16:05 ET | SF +10 | 44 | ARI 26 at SF 36SF +10 closed · push |
 ATL @  CARSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | CAR +3.5 | 49 | ATL 29 at CAR 3CAR +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | MIA -7 | 41.5 | BUF 37 at MIA 20MIA -7 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  LASun, Nov 17 20:20 ET | LA +5 | 40 | CHI 7 at LA 17LA +5 closed · LA covered |
 CIN @  OAKSun, Nov 17 16:25 ET | OAK +13 | 48 | CIN 10 at OAK 17OAK +13 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  DETSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | DET -7.5 | 46.5 | DAL 35 at DET 27DET -7.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  MINSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | MIN +10 | 40.5 | DEN 23 at MIN 27MIN +10 closed · DEN covered |
 HOU @  BALSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | BAL +4 | 51 | HOU 7 at BAL 41BAL +4 closed · BAL covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | IND +2.5 | 41.5 | JAX 13 at IND 33IND +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 NE @  PHISun, Nov 17 16:25 ET | PHI -4.5 | 45 | NE 17 at PHI 10PHI -4.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | TB -5 | 50.5 | NO 34 at TB 17TB -5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  WASSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | WAS +1 | 37.5 | NYJ 34 at WAS 17WAS +1 closed · NYJ covered |
 KC @  LACMon, Nov 18 20:15 ET | LAC -5.5 | 52.5 | KC 24 at LAC 17LAC -5.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CAR LOSS ATL +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 28-18 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 23-15 (60%)
CIN @ 
LV WIN CIN +13 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 29-12 (71%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 28-12 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 44-29 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ MIN WIN DEN +10 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 29-13 (69%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 24-11 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 30-15 (67%)
JAC @ IND WIN JAC +2.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 24-6 (80%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 21-7 (75%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 32-13 (71%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
KC @ LAC LOSS LAC +5.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 22-13 (63%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, division game 16-10 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
NE @ PHI LOSS NE -4.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 48-31 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 45-30 (60%)
PIT @ CLE LOSS PIT +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
NYJ @ WAS WIN WAS -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 21-14 (60%)
ARI @ SF TOTALWIN Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 93-70 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 158-124 (56%)
DEN @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 93-62 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 189-147 (56%)
PIT @ CLE TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 70-53 (57%)
CIN @ OAK TOTALLOSS Over 48.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
DAL @ DET TOTALLOSS Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 64-47 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.