Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 15.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-5, +4.4u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 89-81, +6.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  BALThu, Dec 12 20:20 ET | BAL +17 | 44 | NYJ 21 at BAL 42BAL +17 closed · BAL covered |
 ATL @  SFSun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | SF +10.5 | 50 | ATL 29 at SF 22SF +10.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  PITSun, Dec 15 20:20 ET | PIT +1 | 37 | BUF 17 at PIT 10PIT +1 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | GB +4 | 40 | CHI 13 at GB 21GB +4 closed · GB covered |
 CLE @  ARISun, Dec 15 16:05 ET | ARI -3 | 49 | CLE 24 at ARI 38ARI -3 closed · ARI covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | KC +10 | 43 | DEN 3 at KC 23KC +10 closed · KC covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 50 | HOU 24 at TEN 21TEN +3 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  OAKSun, Dec 15 16:05 ET | OAK +7 | 47 | JAX 20 at OAK 16OAK +7 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  DALSun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | DAL -1 | 48.5 | LA 21 at DAL 44DAL -1 closed · DAL covered |
 MIA @  NYGSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | NYG +3.5 | 47 | MIA 20 at NYG 36NYG +3.5 closed · NYG covered |
 MIN @  LACSun, Dec 15 16:05 ET | LAC -1 | 45 | MIN 39 at LAC 10LAC -1 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  CINSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | CIN -10.5 | 42 | NE 34 at CIN 13CIN -10.5 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | WAS -7 | 38 | PHI 37 at WAS 27WAS -7 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  CARSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | CAR -6 | 48.5 | SEA 30 at CAR 24CAR -6 closed · push |
 TB @  DETSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | DET -5.5 | 46 | TB 38 at DET 17DET -5.5 closed · TB covered |
 IND @  NOMon, Dec 16 20:15 ET | NO +8 | 48.5 | IND 7 at NO 34NO +8 closed · NO covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ LAC - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 34-21 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 32-21 (60%)
LAR @ DAL - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 30-14 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 34-16 (68%)
- and 41 more angles on this side
NE @ CIN - model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 18-12 (60%)
IND @ NO - model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, lost last week, in a dome 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 67-42 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PHI @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 34-18 (65%)
TB @ DET - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 123-76 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 91-57 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 69-44 (61%)
MIA @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 75-55 (58%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 51-38 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 93-70 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ KC TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
BUF @ PIT TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 70-53 (57%)
CHI @ GB TOTAL- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
ATL @ SF TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
JAX @ OAK TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.