Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 2.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-10, -8.2u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 10-14, -7.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  CARThu, Sep 12 20:20 ET | CAR +6.5 | 48 | TB 20 at CAR 14CAR +6.5 closed · TB covered |
 ARI @  BALSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | BAL +13 | 46 | ARI 17 at BAL 23BAL +13 closed · ARI covered |
 BUF @  NYGSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | NYG -1 | 44.5 | BUF 28 at NYG 14NYG -1 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  DENSun, Sep 15 16:25 ET | DEN -3 | 41 | CHI 16 at DEN 14DEN -3 closed · DEN covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | WAS -6 | 46.5 | DAL 31 at WAS 21WAS -6 closed · DAL covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 43.5 | IND 19 at TEN 17TEN +3 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | HOU +7.5 | 43 | JAX 12 at HOU 13HOU +7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  OAKSun, Sep 15 16:05 ET | OAK -7 | 53.5 | KC 28 at OAK 10OAK -7 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  DETSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | DET -1 | 47 | LAC 10 at DET 13DET -1 closed · DET covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | GB +3 | 43 | MIN 16 at GB 21GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | MIA -18 | 48.5 | NE 43 at MIA 0MIA -18 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  LASun, Sep 15 16:25 ET | LA +2 | 52.5 | NO 9 at LA 27LA +2 closed · LA covered |
 PHI @  ATLSun, Sep 15 20:20 ET | ATL -1 | 53 | PHI 20 at ATL 24ATL -1 closed · ATL covered |
 SEA @  PITSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | PIT +4 | 47 | SEA 28 at PIT 26PIT +4 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  CINSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | CIN +1 | 46 | SF 41 at CIN 17CIN +1 closed · SF covered |
 CLE @  NYJMon, Sep 16 20:15 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 45.5 | CLE 23 at NYJ 3NYJ -6.5 closed · CLE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NYG LOSS BUF -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 123-76 (62%)
CHI @ DEN WIN CHI -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 61-37 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 119-74 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 104-66 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
CLE @ NYJ LOSS CLE -6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 123-76 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse QB, better coach 19-12 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
DAL @ WAS LOSS DAL -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 67-37 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-49 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-57 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ GB LOSS MIN +3 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 53-28 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 23-13 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 47-28 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SEA @ PIT WIN PIT -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 37-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 48-31 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SF @ CIN LOSS SF +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 17-8 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 19-11 (63%)
CHI @ DEN TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-37 (59%)
- over when home team off Monday night 158-124 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
JAX @ HOU TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-37 (59%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 39-29 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 93-70 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ MIA TOTALWIN Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 37-17 (68%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
ARI @ BAL TOTALLOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
NO @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 52.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
SF @ CIN TOTALWIN Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
LAC @ DET TOTALLOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
SEA @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.