Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 6.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-3, +6.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 39-40, -2.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYG @  NEThu, Oct 10 20:20 ET | NE +16.5 | 43 | NYG 14 at NE 35NE +16.5 closed · NE covered |
 ATL @  ARISun, Oct 13 16:05 ET | ARI -3 | 52.5 | ATL 33 at ARI 34ARI -3 closed · ARI covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Oct 13 09:30 ET | TB -2 | 48.5 | CAR 37 at TB 26TB -2 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | BAL +10.5 | 47 | CIN 17 at BAL 23BAL +10.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  NYJSun, Oct 13 16:25 ET | NYJ -7 | 43.5 | DAL 22 at NYJ 24NYJ -7 closed · NYJ covered |
 HOU @  KCSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | KC +3.5 | 54.5 | HOU 31 at KC 24KC +3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 NO @  JAXSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | JAX +2.5 | 42.5 | NO 13 at JAX 6JAX +2.5 closed · NO covered |
 PHI @  MINSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 44 | PHI 20 at MIN 38MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 PIT @  LACSun, Oct 13 20:20 ET | LAC +6 | 42.5 | PIT 24 at LAC 17LAC +6 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  CLESun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | CLE +1 | 45.5 | SEA 32 at CLE 28CLE +1 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  LASun, Oct 13 16:05 ET | LA +3 | 49.5 | SF 20 at LA 7LA +3 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  DENSun, Oct 13 16:25 ET | DEN +1 | 41 | TEN 0 at DEN 16DEN +1 closed · DEN covered |
 WAS @  MIASun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | MIA -6 | 42 | WAS 17 at MIA 16MIA -6 closed · MIA covered |
 DET @  GBMon, Oct 14 20:15 ET | GB +3.5 | 47 | DET 22 at GB 23GB +3.5 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 46-30 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 30-20 (60%)
SEA @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 37-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 48-31 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DET @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 77-51 (60%)
SF @ LAR - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 53-28 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 23-13 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 47-28 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
TEN @ DEN - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 19-11 (63%)
SEA @ CLE TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 36-17 (68%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-37 (59%)
- over when windy, early season 42-29 (59%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TEN @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
PIT @ LAC TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
WAS @ MIA TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
ATL @ ARI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.