Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 14.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 81-76, +2.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  CHIThu, Dec 5 20:20 ET | CHI -3 | 43 | DAL 24 at CHI 31CHI -3 closed · CHI covered |
 BAL @  BUFSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | BUF -6.5 | 44 | BAL 24 at BUF 17BUF -6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 48 | CAR 20 at ATL 40ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | CLE +6.5 | 43 | CIN 19 at CLE 27CLE +6.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  HOUSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | HOU +8 | 42.5 | DEN 38 at HOU 24HOU +8 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | MIN +12 | 43.5 | DET 7 at MIN 20MIN +12 closed · MIN covered |
 IND @  TBSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | TB +3 | 46.5 | IND 35 at TB 38TB +3 closed · push |
 KC @  NESun, Dec 8 16:25 ET | NE +3 | 49.5 | KC 23 at NE 16NE +3 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  JAXSun, Dec 8 16:05 ET | JAX -3.5 | 42 | LAC 45 at JAX 10JAX -3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | NYJ +5 | 47 | MIA 21 at NYJ 22NYJ +5 closed · MIA covered |
 PIT @  ARISun, Dec 8 16:25 ET | ARI -2.5 | 43.5 | PIT 23 at ARI 17ARI -2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Dec 8 20:20 ET | LA +1 | 47.5 | SEA 12 at LA 28LA +1 closed · LA covered |
 SF @  NOSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | NO +1 | 45 | SF 48 at NO 46NO +1 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  OAKSun, Dec 8 16:25 ET | OAK -3 | 47 | TEN 42 at OAK 21OAK -3 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  GBSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | GB +13 | 42.5 | WAS 15 at GB 20GB +13 closed · WAS covered |
 NYG @  PHIMon, Dec 9 20:15 ET | PHI +9.5 | 45.5 | NYG 17 at PHI 23PHI +9.5 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PIT @ ARI - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 37-18 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 31-19 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 40-25 (62%)
CAR @ ATL - model likes them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better QB, high total (48+) 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, elite QB, division game 30-19 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, division game 32-21 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ 
LV - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 67-37 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-49 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-57 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ GB - model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 29-13 (69%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 24-11 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 30-15 (67%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ PHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
SEA @ LA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
KC @ NE TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 70-53 (57%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
CIN @ CLE TOTAL- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
MIA @ NYJ TOTAL- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.