New: Be A GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →

Weekly Lines · 2019

Week 17.

16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 3-15, -14.6u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 100-106, -14.5u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ LASun, Dec 29 16:25 ETLA +746ARI 24 at LA 31LA +7 closed · push
ATL @ TBSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETTB +148ATL 28 at TB 22TB +1 closed · ATL covered
CHI @ MINSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETMIN -5.536.5CHI 21 at MIN 19MIN -5.5 closed · MIN covered
CLE @ CINSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETCIN -2.544CLE 23 at CIN 33CIN -2.5 closed · CIN covered
GB @ DETSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETDET -13.544GB 23 at DET 20DET -13.5 closed · DET covered
IND @ JAXSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETJAX -541.5IND 20 at JAX 38JAX -5 closed · JAX covered
LAC @ KCSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETKC +1046LAC 21 at KC 31KC +10 closed · push
MIA @ NESun, Dec 29 13:00 ETNE +17.546MIA 27 at NE 24NE +17.5 closed · MIA covered
NO @ CARSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETCAR -13.545NO 42 at CAR 10CAR -13.5 closed · NO covered
NYJ @ BUFSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETBUF -1.537NYJ 13 at BUF 6BUF -1.5 closed · NYJ covered
OAK @ DENSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETDEN +5.541.5OAK 15 at DEN 16DEN +5.5 closed · OAK covered
PHI @ NYGSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETNYG -444PHI 34 at NYG 17NYG -4 closed · PHI covered
PIT @ BALSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETBAL -235PIT 10 at BAL 28BAL -2 closed · BAL covered
SF @ SEASun, Dec 29 20:20 ETSEA -3.547SF 26 at SEA 21SEA -3.5 closed · SF covered
TEN @ HOUSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETHOU -1043TEN 35 at HOU 14HOU -10 closed · TEN covered
WAS @ DALSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETDAL +1347.5WAS 16 at DAL 47DAL +13 closed · DAL covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @ TB
LOSS ATL +1 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, elite QB, division game 18-11 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, division game 21-13 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 43-27 (61%)
  • and 4 more angles on this side
CLE @ CIN
LOSS CLE -2.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 58-37 (61%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, division game 17-11 (61%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
LV @ DEN
WIN DEN -5.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 73-44 (62%)
IND @ JAC
WIN IND -5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 67-37 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-49 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-57 (62%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ BUF
LOSS NYJ -1.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 36-22 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 123-76 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 119-74 (62%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
SF @ SEA
LOSS SEA +3.5 2.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, division game 17-8 (68%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, division game 16-8 (67%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 34-19 (64%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
PIT @ BAL TOTAL
LOSS Under 35.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
IND @ JAX TOTAL
LOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
NO @ CAR TOTAL
LOSS Under 45.0 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 64-47 (58%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
CLE @ CIN TOTAL
LOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
LAC @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Under 46.0 1.0u
  • under when windy, home team a big favorite 46-32 (59%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
ATL @ TB TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
WAS @ DAL TOTAL
LOSS Under 47.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
OAK @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Under 41.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
TEN @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 64-47 (58%)
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
ARI @ LA TOTAL
LOSS Under 46.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL
LOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
MIA @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Under 46.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 16 The 2019 record

Go deeper

Opens This week's board Plays, trends and college leans Matchup previews Shop every book