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Weekly Lines · 2019

Week 5.

15 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 9-9, -2.1u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 32-37, -9.1u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
LA @ SEAThu, Oct 3 20:20 ETSEA +1.549LA 29 at SEA 30SEA +1.5 closed · LA covered
ARI @ CINSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETCIN +345ARI 26 at CIN 23CIN +3 closed · ARI covered
ATL @ HOUSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETHOU +449ATL 32 at HOU 53HOU +4 closed · HOU covered
BAL @ PITSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETPIT -3.544BAL 26 at PIT 23PIT -3.5 closed · PIT covered
BUF @ TENSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETTEN +3.539.5BUF 14 at TEN 7TEN +3.5 closed · BUF covered
CHI @ OAKSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETOAK -6.539.5CHI 21 at OAK 24OAK -6.5 closed · OAK covered
DEN @ LACSun, Oct 6 16:05 ETLAC +446DEN 20 at LAC 13LAC +4 closed · DEN covered
GB @ DALSun, Oct 6 16:25 ETDAL +3.546.5GB 34 at DAL 24DAL +3.5 closed · GB covered
IND @ KCSun, Oct 6 20:20 ETKC +10.555.5IND 19 at KC 13KC +10.5 closed · IND covered
JAX @ CARSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETCAR +341JAX 27 at CAR 34CAR +3 closed · CAR covered
MIN @ NYGSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETNYG -5.544MIN 28 at NYG 10NYG -5.5 closed · MIN covered
NE @ WASSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETWAS -15.542NE 33 at WAS 7WAS -15.5 closed · NE covered
NYJ @ PHISun, Oct 6 13:00 ETPHI +1443NYJ 6 at PHI 31PHI +14 closed · PHI covered
TB @ NOSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETNO +346TB 24 at NO 31NO +3 closed · NO covered
CLE @ SFMon, Oct 7 20:15 ETSF +547.5CLE 3 at SF 31SF +5 closed · SF covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @ HOU
LOSS ATL +4 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 34-19 (64%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 26-15 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 25-15 (62%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
CHI @ LV
WIN CHI -6.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 119-74 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 104-66 (61%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 134-86 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
ARI @ CIN
WIN CIN -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 37-23 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 48-31 (61%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
CLE @ SF
WIN CLE +5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 16-9 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 21-12 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 33-19 (64%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
IND @ KC
WIN KC -10.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 30-14 (68%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on turf, high total (48+) 22-13 (63%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 47-29 (62%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
DEN @ LAC
LOSS LAC -4 1.0u
  • model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 24-15 (62%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 31-20 (61%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 32-21 (60%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ NYG
LOSS MIN -5.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 123-76 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse QB, better coach 57-37 (61%)
NYJ @ PHI
LOSS PHI -14 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 57-29 (66%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 36-21 (63%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 25-15 (62%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
TB @ NO
LOSS TB +3 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 22-10 (69%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 23-12 (66%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 128-83 (61%)
BUF @ TEN
WIN TEN -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 19-11 (63%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 67-39 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 13-8 (62%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
ARI @ CIN TOTAL
WIN Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 36-17 (68%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-37 (59%)
  • over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 93-70 (57%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
BAL @ PIT TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-37 (59%)
  • over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 93-70 (57%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
JAX @ CAR TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
BUF @ TEN TOTAL
LOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
TB @ NO TOTAL
WIN Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
MIN @ NYG TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
NYJ @ PHI TOTAL
LOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 86-54 (61%)
CLE @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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