Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 13.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-9, -7.3u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 75-72, -1.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  DALThu, Nov 28 16:30 ET | DAL +6.5 | 46.5 | BUF 26 at DAL 15DAL +6.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  DETThu, Nov 28 12:30 ET | DET -5.5 | 37.5 | CHI 24 at DET 20DET -5.5 closed · DET covered |
 NO @  ATLThu, Nov 28 20:20 ET | ATL -7 | 48 | NO 26 at ATL 18ATL -7 closed · NO covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | PIT -1 | 40 | CLE 13 at PIT 20PIT -1 closed · PIT covered |
 GB @  NYGSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | NYG -6.5 | 43.5 | GB 31 at NYG 13NYG -6.5 closed · GB covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Dec 1 16:25 ET | DEN -4.5 | 39 | LAC 20 at DEN 23DEN -4.5 closed · DEN covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Dec 1 16:05 ET | ARI -2.5 | 47 | LA 34 at ARI 7ARI -2.5 closed · LA covered |
 NE @  HOUSun, Dec 1 20:20 ET | HOU -3.5 | 47 | NE 22 at HOU 28HOU -3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 NYJ @  CINSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | CIN -2.5 | 43 | NYJ 6 at CIN 22CIN -2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 OAK @  KCSun, Dec 1 16:25 ET | KC +11.5 | 49.5 | OAK 9 at KC 40KC +11.5 closed · KC covered |
 PHI @  MIASun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | MIA -10.5 | 45 | PHI 31 at MIA 37MIA -10.5 closed · MIA covered |
 SF @  BALSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | BAL +5.5 | 45 | SF 17 at BAL 20BAL +5.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  JAXSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 46.5 | TB 28 at JAX 11JAX -3 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | IND -1 | 41.5 | TEN 31 at IND 17IND -1 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  CARSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | CAR +10.5 | 38.5 | WAS 29 at CAR 21CAR +10.5 closed · WAS covered |
 MIN @  SEAMon, Dec 2 20:15 ET | SEA +2.5 | 48 | MIN 30 at SEA 37SEA +2.5 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ DET WIN CHI -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 45-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 33-20 (62%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
CLE @ PIT WIN CLE -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 19-11 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 34-21 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
GB @ NYG LOSS GB -6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 123-76 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse QB, better coach 19-12 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
LAR @ ARI LOSS LAR -2.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 29-12 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 21-10 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 34-20 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NE @ HOU WIN NE -3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 57-29 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 36-21 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 68-43 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NYJ @ CIN LOSS NYJ -2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, bad QB 19-12 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, bad QB 12-8 (60%)
MIN @ SEA WIN SEA -2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 37-20 (65%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 25-14 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 41-23 (64%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SF @ BAL LOSS SF +5.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 17-8 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 19-11 (63%)
TEN @ IND LOSS TEN -1 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 33-19 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 15-9 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
SF @ BAL TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 25-10 (71%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 36-17 (68%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 51-38 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ PIT TOTALWIN Under 40.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 111-86 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
WAS @ CAR TOTALLOSS Under 38.5 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 46-32 (59%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 87-70 (55%)
PHI @ MIA TOTALLOSS Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big underdog 19-8 (70%)
NO @ ATL TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 37-17 (68%)
- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
TEN @ IND TOTALLOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 298-239 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.