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Weekly Lines · 2019

Week 3.

16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 6-8, -2.8u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 16-22, -10.4u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
TEN @ JAXThu, Sep 19 20:20 ETJAX -1.538TEN 7 at JAX 20JAX -1.5 closed · JAX covered
ATL @ INDSun, Sep 22 13:00 ETIND +148ATL 24 at IND 27IND +1 closed · IND covered
BAL @ KCSun, Sep 22 13:00 ETKC +4.552BAL 28 at KC 33KC +4.5 closed · KC covered
CAR @ ARISun, Sep 22 16:05 ETARI +2.546CAR 38 at ARI 20ARI +2.5 closed · CAR covered
CIN @ BUFSun, Sep 22 13:00 ETBUF +5.543.5CIN 17 at BUF 21BUF +5.5 closed · CIN covered
DEN @ GBSun, Sep 22 13:00 ETGB +742DEN 16 at GB 27GB +7 closed · GB covered
DET @ PHISun, Sep 22 13:00 ETPHI +445DET 27 at PHI 24PHI +4 closed · DET covered
HOU @ LACSun, Sep 22 16:25 ETLAC +349HOU 27 at LAC 20LAC +3 closed · HOU covered
LA @ CLESun, Sep 22 20:20 ETCLE -448LA 20 at CLE 13CLE -4 closed · LA covered
MIA @ DALSun, Sep 22 13:00 ETDAL +2246.5MIA 6 at DAL 31DAL +22 closed · DAL covered
NO @ SEASun, Sep 22 16:25 ETSEA +544NO 33 at SEA 27SEA +5 closed · NO covered
NYG @ TBSun, Sep 22 16:05 ETTB +548NYG 32 at TB 31TB +5 closed · NYG covered
NYJ @ NESun, Sep 22 13:00 ETNE +20.543NYJ 14 at NE 30NE +20.5 closed · NYJ covered
OAK @ MINSun, Sep 22 13:00 ETMIN +8.543OAK 14 at MIN 34MIN +8.5 closed · MIN covered
PIT @ SFSun, Sep 22 16:25 ETSF +644.5PIT 20 at SF 24SF +6 closed · PIT covered
CHI @ WASMon, Sep 23 20:15 ETWAS -541CHI 31 at WAS 15WAS -5 closed · CHI covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @ IND
WIN ATL +1 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 43-27 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 35-23 (60%)
BAL @ KC
LOSS BAL +4.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 32-21 (60%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 27-18 (60%)
MIA @ DAL
LOSS DAL -22 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 45-25 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 91-57 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 69-44 (61%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
LV @ MIN
LOSS MIN -8.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 49-27 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 43-24 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, in a dome 22-13 (63%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
NO @ SEA
LOSS NO +5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, on turf 50-32 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, on turf 52-34 (60%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, on turf 53-35 (60%)
NYG @ TB
LOSS TB -5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better QB, high total (48+) 23-13 (64%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better QB, high total (48+) 24-15 (62%)
TEN @ JAC
WIN TEN -1.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 134-86 (61%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 163-106 (61%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, low total (41 or under) 73-48 (60%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
LA @ CLE TOTAL
LOSS Over 48.0 1.0u
  • over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 36-17 (68%)
  • over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 39-20 (66%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 54-37 (59%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ WAS TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
TEN @ JAX TOTAL
LOSS Over 38.0 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 204-164 (55%)
OAK @ MIN TOTAL
WIN Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
NO @ SEA TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
PIT @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)
CAR @ ARI TOTAL
WIN Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 143-116 (55%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 2 The 2019 record Week 4 →

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